When the Vikings have the ball:
1. Vikings O-Line vs. Cowboys defensive front
In my opinion, this is the most important match up of the game. The Cowboys defensive front, especially Demarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, and Jay Ratliff have been playing unbelievably well during their four game winning streak. When the Vikings have given Favre time to throw this year, their offense has been virtually unstoppable. They certainly have a lot of pride and don't want Favre to get hit at all, however, this is the toughest test they will face by far. The Vikings O-Line plays much better at home than on the road, so that will be to their advantage. This match up may determine the outcome of the game.
2. Brett Favre and Vikings receivers vs. Cowboys secondary
The Cowboys have the 20th ranked pass defense in the NFL, suggesting that this match up should favor Minnesota. Favre has picked apart most defenses this season, so expect nothing different today. Sidney Rice has a huge height advantage on Michael Jenkins and there is no one that can cover Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe on third down.
3. Adrian Peterson vs. Cowboys front seven
Against a team that likes to bring the pressure and has elite pass rushers, you must establish the run. If you don't, they will really start to come after Brett Favre. The Vikes run game has been best this year when they have used the pass to set up the run. They must pass first today and then pound the rock with AD.
When the Cowboys have the ball:
1. Cowboys offensive line vs. Vikings defensive line
The Vikings don't blitz a lot because they create enough pressure with their front four. They lead the NFL in sacks and must show up to play today. If the Vikings are forced to blitz to pressure Tony Romo, the hot quarterback could pick apart the Vikings defense in one on one coverage. Like the O-Line, the Vikes D-Line has played much better at home this year. The Cowboys O-Line should be a little delayed off the line due to the crowd noise and Jared Allen and Co. must take advantage.
2. Vikings front seven vs. Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice
The Cowboys three headed monster of running backs has given their offense terrific balance during their winning streak. Teams rarely even try to run on the Vikings in the Dome, but the Cowboys will at least attempt to today. If the Vikes front seven shuts them down, they force the Cowboys to become one dimensional and can come after Tony Romo.
3. Cowboys receivers and Jason Witten vs. Vikings secondary
The pass defense has been the weak part of the Vikings defense this season. Hopefully, the week off will help CB Antoine Winfield, as he will play a little outside and a little inside in the nickel today. Miles Austin has become a star just like the star on his helmet. Jason Witten is an elite tight end. The key with these receivers and Witten will be to get them on the ground immediately after they catch the ball. The Cowboys are one of the top teams in the league at getting yards after the catch, and Austin in particular thrives on it. The Cowboys don't go down the field much, preferring to use the short passes and the screen game. The Vikes need to put those Cowboys receivers down and limit their explosive plays.
Intangible factor:
The home field advantage.
This is the biggest advantage that either team has today. The Vikings are 8-0 at home and have averaged 31 points per game at the friendly confines of Mall of America Field. Yesterday, you saw what home field advantage did for the Saints and Colts. It will be extremely hard for the Cowboys to operate with the noise level in that building, as the purple fans make it hell on them. The home field, ultimately, will be the reason the Vikings win.
Prediction:
Vikings 30, Cowboys 20
Favre and the home field advantage will be too much for the Cowboys to handle. The Vikings advance to New Orleans for the NFC Championship Game next week. Let's go!
SKOL.
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