Every game in conference play is so important and tonight's is no exception. In fact, this game is of heightened importance because the winner will move into sole possession of third place in the Pac-10, just one game behind Washington and UCLA. The conference is really starting to separate itself out into the top 5 teams and the bottom 5. UCLA, Washington, USC, Cal, and ASU all have legitimate chances to win the league. That's why when USC plays any game against one of the other four top contenders, a win is even more important.
Cal may have the most talented back court in the conference with Jerome Randall (18 ppg) and Patrick Christopher (15 ppg). Theo Robertson and Jamal Boykin also average double figures. Robertson, Randall, and Christopher all shoot over 40% from three as well, and usually live and die by the triple. Cal's defense is definitely suspect, however. I don't think they will have any answer for Taj Gibson tonight. DeMar DeRozan is also due for another breakout game. The X-factor, as usual, should be Dwight Lewis. He'll have to score around 15 against a very good offensive Cal team for the Trojans to win.
The Trojans defensive philosophy should be interesting in this one. Last game, they played a lot of zone in the first half to give their players a rest on D, before going to man in the second half. Tonight, a straight zone won't work against a Cal team that can stroke it from behind the arc. My guess is that the Trojans will go mostly man with a little triangle and 2 mixed in on Randall and Christopher.
The coaching match up is very intriguing. Cal coach Mike Montgomery is receiving a lot of praise for the job he has done with a team that finished 9th in the conference last year. Tim Floyd is known as one of the best game planners, while Montgomery is very good at making adjustments on the fly within games, so it will be interesting to see who wins the cerebral battle.
Championship teams win at home, and if the Trojans have any ideas of winning the Pac-10, they must defend their home court tonight. A win gives them their third straight headed into Pauly Pavilion for the crucial cross town showdown next Wednesday. Let's play. Fight On.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
USC 70, Stanford 69
Another great Pac-10 game at the Galen Center. Wow. USC is now 5-3 in conference play, but could easily be 2-6 or 7-1. The Trojans have found a way to win the close games as of late and now sit just one game out of first place.
Let's start with the positives from last night. The Trojans efficiency on offense was very good. USC scored early and often, getting out to a quick 12-4 lead and maintaining that lead for most of the first half. Even with pneumonia, it was Taj Gibson's game last night. However, the Trojans received contributions from six other players as well, the most significant of which was probably Leonard Washington. He showed soft touch around the basket and was a force to be reckoned with on the glass. Washington gave the Trojans the spark they needed to start the second half as well. Speaking of spark, DeMar DeRozan and Marcus Johnson both slammed home highlight reel dunks that really got the crowd going. DeRozan also had a big time clutch shot from the top of the key in the closing couple minutes. It was also nice to see Dwight Lewis back out on the floor. He didn't try to do too much because he isn't fully healthy yet, but he provided valuable minutes.
The major negative coming out of last night was the defense. I thought Tim Floyd using a zone in the first half was good because it gave his ailing players a bit of a breather. However, Stanford did a great job of knocking down their shots, and Floyd probably should have switched up the D sooner than halftime. Floyd went to man defense after halftime, and it was much more effective. Stanford shot only 38% in the second half compared to 51% in the first. The Trojans did a much better job of contesting shots in the second half, which was the main reason for the disparity. Nonetheless, Lawrence Hill and Landry Fields both had great nights shooting and Mitch Johnson also made a couple big threes. The thing that killed the Trojans the most on D last night was switching on screens. USC needs to do a better job of fighting through the screens and at least contesting the shot. Also, it sometimes seemed like the Trojans were confused weather they were switching or not. If they switch, it has to happen much quicker. Stanford caught the Trojans in slow switches all night.
It was another hard fought win for the Trojans, and one they needed to have. The Trojans have to tighten up the D against Cal tomorrow, but should win that game at home. Assuming they do, they will be 6-3 after the first half of Pac-10 play, which is not too bad for a team that has had key players like Leonard Washington and Dwight Lewis miss multiple games. I'm predicting that the Trojans beat Cal, and then go 6-3 or 7-2 in the second half of conference play.
Here's how I see the Trojans remaining schedule playing out after the Cal game.
"Lock" games: Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State (all at home)
Nothing is ever an absolute lock in the Pac-10, but these three teams are all far inferior to the Trojans and USC gets them all at home. No excuse for losing to any of them.
Leaning W games: Washington, @UCLA, @Arizona, @Stanford
A lot of people may disagree with me on UCLA, but I have said for a long time that I believe they're the most overrated team in the country. They have only two players averaging double figures and have zero presence inside to stop Taj. More on that game next week. Washington is good, but we get them at home. Arizona and Stanford are mediocre teams that must be beat, even on the road.
Leaning L games: @Arizona State, @Cal
To me, Arizona State and USC are the two most talented teams in the conference. I can't see us beating ASU twice this year. Cal is solid enough that they should beat us in Berkeley.
A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but I believe if the Trojans can stay healthy they will make a run at the Pac-10 title. After Cal, I'll have seen everyone play the Trojans once, and so far no one has really impressed me. With the Pac-10 down this year, the Trojans have a shot at it.
Let's start with the positives from last night. The Trojans efficiency on offense was very good. USC scored early and often, getting out to a quick 12-4 lead and maintaining that lead for most of the first half. Even with pneumonia, it was Taj Gibson's game last night. However, the Trojans received contributions from six other players as well, the most significant of which was probably Leonard Washington. He showed soft touch around the basket and was a force to be reckoned with on the glass. Washington gave the Trojans the spark they needed to start the second half as well. Speaking of spark, DeMar DeRozan and Marcus Johnson both slammed home highlight reel dunks that really got the crowd going. DeRozan also had a big time clutch shot from the top of the key in the closing couple minutes. It was also nice to see Dwight Lewis back out on the floor. He didn't try to do too much because he isn't fully healthy yet, but he provided valuable minutes.
The major negative coming out of last night was the defense. I thought Tim Floyd using a zone in the first half was good because it gave his ailing players a bit of a breather. However, Stanford did a great job of knocking down their shots, and Floyd probably should have switched up the D sooner than halftime. Floyd went to man defense after halftime, and it was much more effective. Stanford shot only 38% in the second half compared to 51% in the first. The Trojans did a much better job of contesting shots in the second half, which was the main reason for the disparity. Nonetheless, Lawrence Hill and Landry Fields both had great nights shooting and Mitch Johnson also made a couple big threes. The thing that killed the Trojans the most on D last night was switching on screens. USC needs to do a better job of fighting through the screens and at least contesting the shot. Also, it sometimes seemed like the Trojans were confused weather they were switching or not. If they switch, it has to happen much quicker. Stanford caught the Trojans in slow switches all night.
It was another hard fought win for the Trojans, and one they needed to have. The Trojans have to tighten up the D against Cal tomorrow, but should win that game at home. Assuming they do, they will be 6-3 after the first half of Pac-10 play, which is not too bad for a team that has had key players like Leonard Washington and Dwight Lewis miss multiple games. I'm predicting that the Trojans beat Cal, and then go 6-3 or 7-2 in the second half of conference play.
Here's how I see the Trojans remaining schedule playing out after the Cal game.
"Lock" games: Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State (all at home)
Nothing is ever an absolute lock in the Pac-10, but these three teams are all far inferior to the Trojans and USC gets them all at home. No excuse for losing to any of them.
Leaning W games: Washington, @UCLA, @Arizona, @Stanford
A lot of people may disagree with me on UCLA, but I have said for a long time that I believe they're the most overrated team in the country. They have only two players averaging double figures and have zero presence inside to stop Taj. More on that game next week. Washington is good, but we get them at home. Arizona and Stanford are mediocre teams that must be beat, even on the road.
Leaning L games: @Arizona State, @Cal
To me, Arizona State and USC are the two most talented teams in the conference. I can't see us beating ASU twice this year. Cal is solid enough that they should beat us in Berkeley.
A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but I believe if the Trojans can stay healthy they will make a run at the Pac-10 title. After Cal, I'll have seen everyone play the Trojans once, and so far no one has really impressed me. With the Pac-10 down this year, the Trojans have a shot at it.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Further Thoughts On Tonight
I had neglected to mention in my earlier post a few players I think will be key for the Trojans tonight and probably on Saturday as well:
1. DeMar DeRozan -- With Hackett, Lewis, Washington, and Gibson all nursing injuries or illnesses, it will be extremely important for DeRozan to assert himself as a major scoring threat. His aggressiveness has gotten better; he must be the most aggressive he has been all season tonight and on Saturday.
2. Nikola Vucevic -- Vucevic was very good is his fist career start up in Pullman and he may get another start tonight up front with Gibson. As I mentioned in the earlier post, Stanford is weak in the front court, so don't be surprised if Vucevic has another strong game with some easy layups inside.
3. Donte Smith -- I have been down on this guy all year, but now is the time he must step up. With Hackett ailing, Smith may actually have to play significant minutes tonight and Saturday. The keys for him will be to take care of the basketball, not be too trigger happy, but to make open threes when he gets good looks. The Trojans could really use Angelo Johnson right now (he transferred this past summer), but all Smith needs to do is keep the Trojans in the game if or when Hackett is out.
1. DeMar DeRozan -- With Hackett, Lewis, Washington, and Gibson all nursing injuries or illnesses, it will be extremely important for DeRozan to assert himself as a major scoring threat. His aggressiveness has gotten better; he must be the most aggressive he has been all season tonight and on Saturday.
2. Nikola Vucevic -- Vucevic was very good is his fist career start up in Pullman and he may get another start tonight up front with Gibson. As I mentioned in the earlier post, Stanford is weak in the front court, so don't be surprised if Vucevic has another strong game with some easy layups inside.
3. Donte Smith -- I have been down on this guy all year, but now is the time he must step up. With Hackett ailing, Smith may actually have to play significant minutes tonight and Saturday. The keys for him will be to take care of the basketball, not be too trigger happy, but to make open threes when he gets good looks. The Trojans could really use Angelo Johnson right now (he transferred this past summer), but all Smith needs to do is keep the Trojans in the game if or when Hackett is out.
USC-Stanford
The Trojans injury situation the past two weeks has seemed almost like a comedy of errors. First, Leonard Washington goes out with a high ankle sprain on December 22. The day after he returns against Arizona, leading scorer Dwight Lewis sprains his ankle in practice and misses both games in Washington. Then, upon returning home Taj Gibson comes down with pneumonia and Daniel Hackett has flu-like symptoms himself. Luckily for the Trojans, everyone will be back tonight, albeit a little dinged up. Let's just hope DeMar DeRozan stays away from the injury bug.
The storyline tonight will be how effective the dinged up Trojans will be. I expect Hackett and Gibson to be fine because in a huge game like this adrenalin can carry you through most of it. Keep an eye on Lewis and Washington, however. I think USC did a good thing by sitting Dwight last weekend because he wasn't 100 percent yet, so hopefully tonight he's back close to that level. Washington, on the other hand, is still only about 50 percent, so expect decreased minutes from him. The Trojans injuries make the play of reserves Nikola Vucevic and Marcus Johnson even more critical. Both were very good on Saturday in Pullman and if they are strong again tonight, Coach Floyd can feel more confident about using his bench to give his dinged up starters some rest.
Stanford is an interesting team. They have an experienced starting lineup, but not much star power other than guard Anthony Goods. Their lineup features three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. The Cardinal were bitten hard by the departures of Brook and Robin Lopez to the NBA, and it has been much more devastating to them than the departure of O.J. Mayo has been to the Trojans. After all, this banged up Trojans team is on pace to finish with the exact same record it had last year, while the Cardinal are far from their second-place Pac-10 finish of last year.
Expect Hackett to get the defensive assignment on Goods, just as he did with James Harden of ASU. Stanford is going to need other players to step up, such as senior guard Mitch Johnson, and senior forward Lawrence Hill. Big men have had success against the Cardinal this year. In their Pac-10 opener against ASU in Palo Alto, the Cardinal let Jeff Pendergraph go for 31 and 13 on that ass. Lawrence Hill is solid, but will be no match for Taj Gibson. If the Trojans center from Brooklyn, NY is feeling at all healthy and can stay out of early foul trouble, look for Lawrence Hill to have a long night trying to guard him or score on him. Taj has shut down the likes of Pendergraph, Jon Brockman, Aron Baines, and Jordan Hill. He is, in my opinion, clearly the best big man in the conference and will show why again tonight at home.
The Trojans need this one because Stanford has a lower RPI than them, and because a much tougher Cal team visits the Galen Center on Saturday night.
Let's play. Fight On.
The storyline tonight will be how effective the dinged up Trojans will be. I expect Hackett and Gibson to be fine because in a huge game like this adrenalin can carry you through most of it. Keep an eye on Lewis and Washington, however. I think USC did a good thing by sitting Dwight last weekend because he wasn't 100 percent yet, so hopefully tonight he's back close to that level. Washington, on the other hand, is still only about 50 percent, so expect decreased minutes from him. The Trojans injuries make the play of reserves Nikola Vucevic and Marcus Johnson even more critical. Both were very good on Saturday in Pullman and if they are strong again tonight, Coach Floyd can feel more confident about using his bench to give his dinged up starters some rest.
Stanford is an interesting team. They have an experienced starting lineup, but not much star power other than guard Anthony Goods. Their lineup features three seniors, a junior, and a sophomore. The Cardinal were bitten hard by the departures of Brook and Robin Lopez to the NBA, and it has been much more devastating to them than the departure of O.J. Mayo has been to the Trojans. After all, this banged up Trojans team is on pace to finish with the exact same record it had last year, while the Cardinal are far from their second-place Pac-10 finish of last year.
Expect Hackett to get the defensive assignment on Goods, just as he did with James Harden of ASU. Stanford is going to need other players to step up, such as senior guard Mitch Johnson, and senior forward Lawrence Hill. Big men have had success against the Cardinal this year. In their Pac-10 opener against ASU in Palo Alto, the Cardinal let Jeff Pendergraph go for 31 and 13 on that ass. Lawrence Hill is solid, but will be no match for Taj Gibson. If the Trojans center from Brooklyn, NY is feeling at all healthy and can stay out of early foul trouble, look for Lawrence Hill to have a long night trying to guard him or score on him. Taj has shut down the likes of Pendergraph, Jon Brockman, Aron Baines, and Jordan Hill. He is, in my opinion, clearly the best big man in the conference and will show why again tonight at home.
The Trojans need this one because Stanford has a lower RPI than them, and because a much tougher Cal team visits the Galen Center on Saturday night.
Let's play. Fight On.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
USC Has Some Work To Do
For people who think a trip to the NCAA Tournament is a sure bet for the Trojans, think again. In his latest Bracketology on espn.com, Joe Lunardi had the Trojans as the fourth team out of the field. Yes, if it started today, Lunardi has USC out of the NCAA Tournament. Now, I don't mean to create a sense of panic, but just to inform Trojans fans out there that USC has work to be done. A sweep of the Bay Area schools this week at Galen Center is crucial; if the Trojans can get it done, Lunardi will almost certainly have them in the field next Monday when he releases his next Bracketology.
Why is this guy Lunardi so important? Because he has been doing this stuff for years and is normally extremely accurate as to seeding and who is in or out of the tournament. That's not to say he predicts the field perfectly every year, but he is pretty damn close most of the time. Why does he have USC out right now? Mainly, for two reasons.
-The Trojans had a terrible time with their non-conference schedule. The loss to Seton Hall was really bad, and the loss to Mizzou looked bad at the time, but doesn't look so bad now. USC also lost by 1 at Oklahoma, which would have been a huge win. Add to that the early Pac-10 loss at Oregon State (which is looking like a better and better team by the day), and the Trojans have some work to do to overcome these bad losses. If Troy had been able to snag one of the above games, they are probably in the field today.
-The Pac-10 is perceived as a weak conference this year. Right now, Lunardi has 4 Pac-10 teams in the field, compared to 6 last year. The hit the Pac-10 took this year is unquestionable, but I think this year's USC team when healthy is better than last year's. It's up to the Trojans to get healthy and show the selection committee why. The Trojans currently sit 5th in the Pac-10 standings, just 2 games out of first. That's why a good week is essential, especially at home, because the Trojans will easily get to the top 3 of the standings with a sweep of Stanford and Cal.
What do the Trojans have to do the rest of the way to insure an NCAA Tournament bid?
-Finish in the top 4 of the conference. This is the most important thing for the Trojans to do. Since 4 Pac-10 teams will probably get in, finishing in the top 4 during the regular season and possibly picking up a win in the Pac-10 tournament should get the Trojans in.
-Win 20 games. Usually, almost without exception, 20-win teams get a birth in the tournament. Last year, the Trojans had 21 wins. The Trojans must go 7-4 the rest of the way in conference play to make sure of 20 this year. Here are the teams USC should/hopefully will beat to get there:
Home: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State
Road: Arizona, UCLA
These are the games that USC has to win. Stanford and UCLA on the road are pretty big stretches, but a full strength Trojans squad is better than both of those teams. UCLA may in fact be the most overrated team in the country right now: they can't score, they have no serious depth, and they don't have a go to guy down the stretch. They are really struggling right now, and should finish below the Trojans in the Pac-10 standings.
Here are the games USC may have trouble with, but would be huge for them to pull off.
Home: Washington
Road: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State
I really think Stanford on the road will be tougher than UCLA on the road. You can flip-flop them if you like. Regardless, the Trojans must go at least 5-1 at home and 2-3 on the road in order to get to 20 wins. Could they get more? I think so, but only if they stay healthy. Dwight Lewis should be back this week, which will be huge. He and Leonard Washington need to stay healthy and contribute, and the Trojans can't have anyone else go down.
Should be fun. Fight On.
Why is this guy Lunardi so important? Because he has been doing this stuff for years and is normally extremely accurate as to seeding and who is in or out of the tournament. That's not to say he predicts the field perfectly every year, but he is pretty damn close most of the time. Why does he have USC out right now? Mainly, for two reasons.
-The Trojans had a terrible time with their non-conference schedule. The loss to Seton Hall was really bad, and the loss to Mizzou looked bad at the time, but doesn't look so bad now. USC also lost by 1 at Oklahoma, which would have been a huge win. Add to that the early Pac-10 loss at Oregon State (which is looking like a better and better team by the day), and the Trojans have some work to do to overcome these bad losses. If Troy had been able to snag one of the above games, they are probably in the field today.
-The Pac-10 is perceived as a weak conference this year. Right now, Lunardi has 4 Pac-10 teams in the field, compared to 6 last year. The hit the Pac-10 took this year is unquestionable, but I think this year's USC team when healthy is better than last year's. It's up to the Trojans to get healthy and show the selection committee why. The Trojans currently sit 5th in the Pac-10 standings, just 2 games out of first. That's why a good week is essential, especially at home, because the Trojans will easily get to the top 3 of the standings with a sweep of Stanford and Cal.
What do the Trojans have to do the rest of the way to insure an NCAA Tournament bid?
-Finish in the top 4 of the conference. This is the most important thing for the Trojans to do. Since 4 Pac-10 teams will probably get in, finishing in the top 4 during the regular season and possibly picking up a win in the Pac-10 tournament should get the Trojans in.
-Win 20 games. Usually, almost without exception, 20-win teams get a birth in the tournament. Last year, the Trojans had 21 wins. The Trojans must go 7-4 the rest of the way in conference play to make sure of 20 this year. Here are the teams USC should/hopefully will beat to get there:
Home: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State
Road: Arizona, UCLA
These are the games that USC has to win. Stanford and UCLA on the road are pretty big stretches, but a full strength Trojans squad is better than both of those teams. UCLA may in fact be the most overrated team in the country right now: they can't score, they have no serious depth, and they don't have a go to guy down the stretch. They are really struggling right now, and should finish below the Trojans in the Pac-10 standings.
Here are the games USC may have trouble with, but would be huge for them to pull off.
Home: Washington
Road: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State
I really think Stanford on the road will be tougher than UCLA on the road. You can flip-flop them if you like. Regardless, the Trojans must go at least 5-1 at home and 2-3 on the road in order to get to 20 wins. Could they get more? I think so, but only if they stay healthy. Dwight Lewis should be back this week, which will be huge. He and Leonard Washington need to stay healthy and contribute, and the Trojans can't have anyone else go down.
Should be fun. Fight On.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Washington 78, USC 73
This had all the indications you need to claim it was fixed -- and normally I would never say something like this because I respect the integrity of the game. However, in the first half USC shot five free throws to Washington's 11. Not too bad, right? The refs were letting both teams play very physical basketball. What happened in the second half? USC shot 12 free throws, only 7 more than they shot in the first half. Washington, on the other hand, shot 29 free throws in the second half, 18 more than they shot in the first half. So, in the end the Huskies shot 23 more free throws than the Trojans. That is almost as lopsided a differential as the game at ASU last year, when the differential was 28 in favor of ASU in terms of free throws shot. Tim Floyd had to file a complaint to the league after that game, and I'm sure he'll be filing a similar one when he gets back home. Was USC that much less aggressive in the second half, or did the referees simply change the way they were calling the game? It is clearly the later. USC still went to the basket aggressively, as did Washington. The Huskies got the fouls called, the Trojans didn't. Simple as that. I don't have a problem if you want to call a lot of fouls (even though I usually prefer a more physical style) -- but then you have to call them the whole damn game and for both damn teams!!! Another point: The spread for this game was -6 for Washington and the Huskies won by five.
Were a lot of people betting on Washington with the points? Probably, because they were playing at home and they were 4-1 coming in, and the Trojans didn't have Dwight Lewis. Maybe others were betting on the Trojans to win straight up? Quite possibly USC fans were. Think the refs looked at the line at the half? I have no proof of it, but it wouldn't surprise me in a sport where there have already been betting scandals. It must go on a lot more than people think.
The thing that irked me most about the officiating was the number of charging calls on the Trojans. Keith Wilkinson and Daniel Hackett were both called for absolutely ridiculous charging violations when the defender was clearly late getting into position. In Wilkinson's case, his layup should have counted and he should have got a free throw out of it. In Hackett's case, he should of had a one-and-one because the Huskies were over the limit at the time. The worst call of the game, however, had to be the technical foul on Leonard Washington. Two Huskies players are going for the rebound under the rim, Leonard jumps up and realized that he will come down on top of the Huskies players, so he grabs onto the rim to avoid them. That is perfectly within the rules. Then, immediately after the players leave the area, Washington comes down from the rim. Yet, he still received a technical for hanging on the rim. Unreal. The Pac-10 should really take more pride in hiring better officials. They say they are the "conference of champions", but with the officiating we have in this conference, you have to wonder how legitimate our champions even are. This was a critical Pac-10 game between two very good teams, and the officials bailed out the team that shot 10% worse from the field and had 6 less field goals than the other team. Wow.
As for USC's season as a whole, it seems that they just can't get everyone healthy. I think this is why they haven't strung together three or more wins in a row in conference yet. They had a chance last night, but it's tough when you're four men down (the three refs and Dwight Lewis). In all seriousness, if the Trojans get Lewis back on the court next week and they don't have any more injuries, they will definitely make a run at some point because from what I've seen so far, they have the most talented starting five in the Pac-10. Last year, they probably had the second best starting five to UCLA, but didn't play very good team basketball. I thought that while they did turn the ball over far too much last night, they played very well together without their leading scorer, and really showed a lot of grit. Now the question is, how much grit do they really have? They have to go to Wazzu tomorrow and win, even without Dwight Lewis. They are the more talented team with or without Lewis, and they have to pick up this road win because their remaining five road games are all tough (UCLA, Arizona schools, and Bay Area schools). Nearly every NCAA tournament team makes a run in conference play at some point. Last year, the Trojans won five out of their last six conference games. This year, that run can start tomorrow with a win and continue next week at home when Dwight Lewis gets back.
Were a lot of people betting on Washington with the points? Probably, because they were playing at home and they were 4-1 coming in, and the Trojans didn't have Dwight Lewis. Maybe others were betting on the Trojans to win straight up? Quite possibly USC fans were. Think the refs looked at the line at the half? I have no proof of it, but it wouldn't surprise me in a sport where there have already been betting scandals. It must go on a lot more than people think.
The thing that irked me most about the officiating was the number of charging calls on the Trojans. Keith Wilkinson and Daniel Hackett were both called for absolutely ridiculous charging violations when the defender was clearly late getting into position. In Wilkinson's case, his layup should have counted and he should have got a free throw out of it. In Hackett's case, he should of had a one-and-one because the Huskies were over the limit at the time. The worst call of the game, however, had to be the technical foul on Leonard Washington. Two Huskies players are going for the rebound under the rim, Leonard jumps up and realized that he will come down on top of the Huskies players, so he grabs onto the rim to avoid them. That is perfectly within the rules. Then, immediately after the players leave the area, Washington comes down from the rim. Yet, he still received a technical for hanging on the rim. Unreal. The Pac-10 should really take more pride in hiring better officials. They say they are the "conference of champions", but with the officiating we have in this conference, you have to wonder how legitimate our champions even are. This was a critical Pac-10 game between two very good teams, and the officials bailed out the team that shot 10% worse from the field and had 6 less field goals than the other team. Wow.
As for USC's season as a whole, it seems that they just can't get everyone healthy. I think this is why they haven't strung together three or more wins in a row in conference yet. They had a chance last night, but it's tough when you're four men down (the three refs and Dwight Lewis). In all seriousness, if the Trojans get Lewis back on the court next week and they don't have any more injuries, they will definitely make a run at some point because from what I've seen so far, they have the most talented starting five in the Pac-10. Last year, they probably had the second best starting five to UCLA, but didn't play very good team basketball. I thought that while they did turn the ball over far too much last night, they played very well together without their leading scorer, and really showed a lot of grit. Now the question is, how much grit do they really have? They have to go to Wazzu tomorrow and win, even without Dwight Lewis. They are the more talented team with or without Lewis, and they have to pick up this road win because their remaining five road games are all tough (UCLA, Arizona schools, and Bay Area schools). Nearly every NCAA tournament team makes a run in conference play at some point. Last year, the Trojans won five out of their last six conference games. This year, that run can start tomorrow with a win and continue next week at home when Dwight Lewis gets back.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
USC-Washington
This is the critical game of the two this week. If the Trojans can get a split this week, it hopefully will be this one that they win because it would prove a lot to beat a good Huskies team that is tied for first in the Pac-10 (4-1). Plus, a loss to Wazzu on the road wouldn't be that bad and the Trojans have a lot of trouble in Pullman. So, they need this game.
I haven't seen this phenom guard Isaiah Thomas (no relation to the other one, I'm assuming). Based on stats and from what I've heard, he's pretty good. He is tied with John Brockman as the leading scorer for UW (15.8 ppg). However, when you look at his stats you can see some flaws. He only shoots the three ball at 33% overall, and is at 30% in Pac-10 play. Against Stanford and Cal (the best two teams UW has played), Thomas has gone a combined 2-10 from distance. Plus, he's only 5-8 and will be defended by 6-5 Daniel Hackett, who did a phenomenal job on James Harden last week. Don't get me wrong, Thomas could have a good game (like Nic Wise did for U of A), but I don't think he'll kill the Trojans.
John Brockman vs. Taj Gibson will be the match up to watch. Gibson has held his own against the likes of Jordon Hill and Jeff Pendergraph, and I don't think Brockman is as good as either of them. He is very strong, however, and a great rebounder, so Taj will need to box out and not let him get any second chance points. Gibson should be able to score over him too because of a two foot height advantage.
If Dwight Lewis plays, he will be the determining factor in the outcome of the game. When he plays well and shoots at a high percentage, the Trojans usually win. The evidence is this: In the Trojans two Pac-10 losses, Lewis has shot 4-24 FG and has a combined 10 pts. In the three league wins, he has shot 46% and has 65 pts. Need more? In the losses, zero free throw attempts. In the wins, he has shot 17 free throws. Clearly, he is the X-factor again this year (he was last year too, in my opinion, along with Davon Jefferson). The thing about Lewis that I like this year is that he is more aggressive in taking the ball to the rim. Last year, if his shot wasn't falling, he played terribly. This year, he can have a bad night shooting from outside, but still have a productive game (like the Arizona game on Saturday, when he shot only 5-13 from the floor, but went 10-12 from the line). Lewis shouldn't play if his ankle is too dinged up to be effective because an ineffective Dwight Lewis hurts the Trojans far more than if he just doesn't play at all. If Lewis can't go, look for DeMar DeRozan to be one of the guys, along with Marcus Johnson, to pick up the slack.
Should be a great, hard fought game tonight and it would be absolutely huge if the Trojans steal it.
Fight On.
I haven't seen this phenom guard Isaiah Thomas (no relation to the other one, I'm assuming). Based on stats and from what I've heard, he's pretty good. He is tied with John Brockman as the leading scorer for UW (15.8 ppg). However, when you look at his stats you can see some flaws. He only shoots the three ball at 33% overall, and is at 30% in Pac-10 play. Against Stanford and Cal (the best two teams UW has played), Thomas has gone a combined 2-10 from distance. Plus, he's only 5-8 and will be defended by 6-5 Daniel Hackett, who did a phenomenal job on James Harden last week. Don't get me wrong, Thomas could have a good game (like Nic Wise did for U of A), but I don't think he'll kill the Trojans.
John Brockman vs. Taj Gibson will be the match up to watch. Gibson has held his own against the likes of Jordon Hill and Jeff Pendergraph, and I don't think Brockman is as good as either of them. He is very strong, however, and a great rebounder, so Taj will need to box out and not let him get any second chance points. Gibson should be able to score over him too because of a two foot height advantage.
If Dwight Lewis plays, he will be the determining factor in the outcome of the game. When he plays well and shoots at a high percentage, the Trojans usually win. The evidence is this: In the Trojans two Pac-10 losses, Lewis has shot 4-24 FG and has a combined 10 pts. In the three league wins, he has shot 46% and has 65 pts. Need more? In the losses, zero free throw attempts. In the wins, he has shot 17 free throws. Clearly, he is the X-factor again this year (he was last year too, in my opinion, along with Davon Jefferson). The thing about Lewis that I like this year is that he is more aggressive in taking the ball to the rim. Last year, if his shot wasn't falling, he played terribly. This year, he can have a bad night shooting from outside, but still have a productive game (like the Arizona game on Saturday, when he shot only 5-13 from the floor, but went 10-12 from the line). Lewis shouldn't play if his ankle is too dinged up to be effective because an ineffective Dwight Lewis hurts the Trojans far more than if he just doesn't play at all. If Lewis can't go, look for DeMar DeRozan to be one of the guys, along with Marcus Johnson, to pick up the slack.
Should be a great, hard fought game tonight and it would be absolutely huge if the Trojans steal it.
Fight On.
Monday, January 19, 2009
USC 65, Arizona 64
What an exciting game we got to witness at Galen on Saturday. You have to admire the toughness and grit of this team to be down the entire game and battle back to get the win. Daniel Hackett was the definition of goat when he missed those two free throws, only to come back and be the hero with his clutch elbow jumper and free throw to win the game. Bottom line is, the Trojans got the two wins they needed at home and now must pick up at least one win in Washington. I've said all along that this team can win the Pac-10 and I'm not ready to back off that statement, especially because Cal and UCLA lost on Saturday, putting the Trojans just one game back of first. There's a long way to go. We just have to keep grinding. Fight On.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Championship Sunday Predictions
Here are my predictions for what promises to be a very interesting Championship Sunday in the NFL.
NFC Championship
Eagles over Cardinals
I want to take the Cardinals here, but I think Jim Johnson will make life miserable for Kurt Warner. That will be the difference in the game. That stadium will be absolutely rocking.
AFC Championship
Ravens over Steelers
I'm taking the Ravens because I just get the feeling they're on one of those runs. Without Suggs and Samari Rolle the match up definitely favors the Steelers, but I still think the outstanding Ravens defense will step up and win this game for them. Pittsburgh's offense is better, but again, I just get this vibe that Baltimore will win. Can't really tell you why. This should be a dandy.
NFC Championship
Eagles over Cardinals
I want to take the Cardinals here, but I think Jim Johnson will make life miserable for Kurt Warner. That will be the difference in the game. That stadium will be absolutely rocking.
AFC Championship
Ravens over Steelers
I'm taking the Ravens because I just get the feeling they're on one of those runs. Without Suggs and Samari Rolle the match up definitely favors the Steelers, but I still think the outstanding Ravens defense will step up and win this game for them. Pittsburgh's offense is better, but again, I just get this vibe that Baltimore will win. Can't really tell you why. This should be a dandy.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
USC-Arizona
The win against ASU on Thursday means nothing if the Trojans can't finish off a sweep of the Arizona schools today with a victory over the Wildcats. U of A is a team in transition, after losing legendary coach Lute Olson before the season. They do, however, have some very good players, especially on their front line. Jordon Hill will be a high lottery pick and Chase Buddinger is a terrific outside shooter (he dropped 29 on USC last year at Galen). It will be important for Taj Gibson to stay out of foul trouble because Tim Floyd wants to wait until next week to bring back Leonard Washington (sprained ankle). Washington will only play if the Trojans need him today. Hopefully, the Trojans can jump on the Wildcats early and take them out of the game mentally, after they got pummeled by UCLA on Thursday. Look for Dwight Lewis and DeMar DeRozan to carry the Trojans today.
Friday, January 16, 2009
USC 61, #15 ASU 49
It was a tale of two halves for USC last night at the Galen Center, and luckily for the Trojans, they were able to pull away from the Sun Devils at the end. As I mentioned in my post yesterday, last night's game was essentially a must win for USC and they came through and got the money at home. Now, they have to stay focused and beat a much worse Arizona team at home tomorrow. Then, hopefully the Trojans can get on a run and we can start talking about them as serious contenders in the Pac-10. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. Here are my impressions from last night's big win:
-The stat in the box score that stood out the most was James Harden's 4 points. He torched the Trojans three times last year (scoring over 20 twice) and is without question the best player in the Pac-10 and one of the best in the nation. Daniel Hackett's defensive performance was as good as I have ever seen at the college level. It wasn't just that he was forcing Harden to miss shots (0-8 FG). He did an even better job of denying him the basketball. Whether Harden was on or off the ball, Hackett was face to face with him and made everything tough for the star player. Daniel was 0-4 shooting himself, but his defensive effort won the game for the Trojans.
-DeMar DeRozan was the other player who stood out to me. After only scoring 3 in the first half, he put up 19 in the second half. 17 came in the last 10 minutes of the game. That's what you call finishing. It's even an improvement from one game ago, where DeRozan had 15 in the first half and disappeared down the stretch. He scored in a variety of different ways and it was a pleasure to watch. His spin move in the lane followed up by a lefty floater was sensational. DeRozan is getting better and becoming more comfortable each and every game. What is making him so lethal right now is the improvement in his jump shot. We all knew he had a great ability to get to the rim, but if he can shoot with consistency, he will become unstoppable. As I've said before, if he starts to hit his stride in Pac-10 play, DeRozan can take the Trojans very far.
-Dwight Lewis kept the Trojans in the game in the first half. After coming off the bench for the first time this season, Lewis finally got his stroke back. His first three in the first half got the Trojans out of a terrible 1-12 shooting start. I say it a lot, but Dwight Lewis is the X-factor for this team. He played great and the Trojans won.
-Donte Smith is still a very mediocre player. Apparently, he was starting as a reward for working hard in practice, but he has several things he must improve in order to play at this level: turnovers, ball handling, and most importantly, his outside shooting. Smith was supposedly a great outside shooter in junior college, which suggests to me that he is not mentally prepared yet to make shots in high pressure situations. He is shooting threes at about 20% right now, which is just atrocious. Tim Floyd left Smith in for far too long at the outset. Don't get me wrong, the Trojans need Smith to be a serviceable backup to Daniel Hackett, but right now, he should not be playing big minutes. The Trojans could sure use my boy Angelo Johnson, who transferred after last season.
-ASU needs to find a way to win in Los Angeles if they want to be considered serious Pac-10 title contenders. They have lost eight in a row in LA. Seen as the Pac-10 tournament is at Staples Center , they might want to start winning here. It also might help to beat UCLA or USC on the road once in a while if you want to win the conference. USC knocked ASU out in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney last year. Here's hoping it happens again.
-As much as I just ripped on the Sun Devils, they do play terrific defense. It's a very complicated defense that at first appears to be a zone, but then shifts to a man to man. It's very tough to describe and I even heard USC assistant coach Phil Johnson having a tough time describing it after the game. He jokingly said it would take him three years to learn. Well, it works for coach Herb Sendeck most of the time. It was just that last night, USC's defense was better thanks to Daniel Hackett. YES!
-ASU guard Derek Glaser is a punk. In the first half, he gave DeMar DeRozan a hard elbow to the chest that the refs completely ignored, and he picked up several chippy fouls after that. Plus, he's one of those guys you can tell is a jerk just by looking at him. The student section was very appropriately heckling him throughout the game.
A great win for USC. It can mean one of two things: The Trojans either use it as momentum to start a run through Pac-10 play, or the Trojans revert to their old inconsistent ways. With all the talent on this squad and the return of Leonard Washington approaching, I think the win will propel USC forward on a nice run. Let's hope so. Fight On.
-The stat in the box score that stood out the most was James Harden's 4 points. He torched the Trojans three times last year (scoring over 20 twice) and is without question the best player in the Pac-10 and one of the best in the nation. Daniel Hackett's defensive performance was as good as I have ever seen at the college level. It wasn't just that he was forcing Harden to miss shots (0-8 FG). He did an even better job of denying him the basketball. Whether Harden was on or off the ball, Hackett was face to face with him and made everything tough for the star player. Daniel was 0-4 shooting himself, but his defensive effort won the game for the Trojans.
-DeMar DeRozan was the other player who stood out to me. After only scoring 3 in the first half, he put up 19 in the second half. 17 came in the last 10 minutes of the game. That's what you call finishing. It's even an improvement from one game ago, where DeRozan had 15 in the first half and disappeared down the stretch. He scored in a variety of different ways and it was a pleasure to watch. His spin move in the lane followed up by a lefty floater was sensational. DeRozan is getting better and becoming more comfortable each and every game. What is making him so lethal right now is the improvement in his jump shot. We all knew he had a great ability to get to the rim, but if he can shoot with consistency, he will become unstoppable. As I've said before, if he starts to hit his stride in Pac-10 play, DeRozan can take the Trojans very far.
-Dwight Lewis kept the Trojans in the game in the first half. After coming off the bench for the first time this season, Lewis finally got his stroke back. His first three in the first half got the Trojans out of a terrible 1-12 shooting start. I say it a lot, but Dwight Lewis is the X-factor for this team. He played great and the Trojans won.
-Donte Smith is still a very mediocre player. Apparently, he was starting as a reward for working hard in practice, but he has several things he must improve in order to play at this level: turnovers, ball handling, and most importantly, his outside shooting. Smith was supposedly a great outside shooter in junior college, which suggests to me that he is not mentally prepared yet to make shots in high pressure situations. He is shooting threes at about 20% right now, which is just atrocious. Tim Floyd left Smith in for far too long at the outset. Don't get me wrong, the Trojans need Smith to be a serviceable backup to Daniel Hackett, but right now, he should not be playing big minutes. The Trojans could sure use my boy Angelo Johnson, who transferred after last season.
-ASU needs to find a way to win in Los Angeles if they want to be considered serious Pac-10 title contenders. They have lost eight in a row in LA. Seen as the Pac-10 tournament is at Staples Center , they might want to start winning here. It also might help to beat UCLA or USC on the road once in a while if you want to win the conference. USC knocked ASU out in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney last year. Here's hoping it happens again.
-As much as I just ripped on the Sun Devils, they do play terrific defense. It's a very complicated defense that at first appears to be a zone, but then shifts to a man to man. It's very tough to describe and I even heard USC assistant coach Phil Johnson having a tough time describing it after the game. He jokingly said it would take him three years to learn. Well, it works for coach Herb Sendeck most of the time. It was just that last night, USC's defense was better thanks to Daniel Hackett. YES!
-ASU guard Derek Glaser is a punk. In the first half, he gave DeMar DeRozan a hard elbow to the chest that the refs completely ignored, and he picked up several chippy fouls after that. Plus, he's one of those guys you can tell is a jerk just by looking at him. The student section was very appropriately heckling him throughout the game.
A great win for USC. It can mean one of two things: The Trojans either use it as momentum to start a run through Pac-10 play, or the Trojans revert to their old inconsistent ways. With all the talent on this squad and the return of Leonard Washington approaching, I think the win will propel USC forward on a nice run. Let's hope so. Fight On.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
#15 ASU-USC: A must win for the Trojans?
It should be another terrific game at Galen Center tonight, as the Trojans host the 15th ranked Sun Devils. The Sun Devils will showcase one of the top players in the country in James Harden. He was a player many thought might go straight to the NBA after his freshman season last year, but he decided to stay and it has certainly paid off, as he is averaging about 23 ppg. Normally, the strategy when playing a team with a star like Harden is to let him get his points, but to try and shut down the other guys. Tim Floyd, however, has employed the opposite strategy when playing teams like this. He normally tries to make the other guys beat his team, while attempting to shut down the star player. He has already shown this philosophy with Blake Griffin when USC played Oklahoma earlier this year. Last year, he attempted to shut down the likes of Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, and Brandon Rush. It will be interesting to see how he goes about containing Harden tonight. Expect Coach Floyd to frequently change up his defensive schemes in an attempt to confuse the Sun Devils.
The Trojans really need a win tonight at home. I know they started last year 0-3 in the Pac-10, but this year they don't have O.J. Mayo to help carry them out of an early hole in conference play. Not only do the Trojans need this win to improve their conference standing, but they need to prove they can beat a top-25 team. They have come close against Oklahoma and UCLA, but they need to beat a team like ASU at home if they hope to be a top team in the Pac-10. A win against a solid team like the Sun Devils will do a lot to help the Trojans make up for loses to teams like Seton Hall, Missouri, and Oregon State. A win tonight won't cure everything that has gone wrong so far, but it could help get the Trojans on a little run. The key tonight for USC will be Dwight Lewis. He has struggled shooting the ball the past two games and he needs to find his stroke and be a consistent scoring option for the Trojans. Normally, when Lewis plays well the Trojans win. Should be exciting tonight.
The Trojans really need a win tonight at home. I know they started last year 0-3 in the Pac-10, but this year they don't have O.J. Mayo to help carry them out of an early hole in conference play. Not only do the Trojans need this win to improve their conference standing, but they need to prove they can beat a top-25 team. They have come close against Oklahoma and UCLA, but they need to beat a team like ASU at home if they hope to be a top team in the Pac-10. A win against a solid team like the Sun Devils will do a lot to help the Trojans make up for loses to teams like Seton Hall, Missouri, and Oregon State. A win tonight won't cure everything that has gone wrong so far, but it could help get the Trojans on a little run. The key tonight for USC will be Dwight Lewis. He has struggled shooting the ball the past two games and he needs to find his stroke and be a consistent scoring option for the Trojans. Normally, when Lewis plays well the Trojans win. Should be exciting tonight.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
UCLA 64, USC 60
The Trojans suffered yet another disappointing loss to the Bruins at Galen Center on Sunday night (They are now 0-3 against UCLA at the Galen Center). It was a very intense, back and forth game that the Trojans had in their control for much of the second half. When it came down to crunch time, however, the veteran and battle tested Bruins showed why they are ranked #10 in the country. Here were my impressions from Sunday's loss:
-The Trojans remarkably were able to stay in the game in the first half despite Taj Gibson missing most of it because of foul trouble. Keith Wilkinson knocked down some big shots, and Wilkinson and Nikola Vucevic did a pretty good job on the boards. Marcus Johnson also gave the Trojans some solid minutes. It certainly helped that Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute no longer make up an imposing Bruins front court, but nonetheless, give credit to Wilkinson, Vucevic, and Johnson.
-Tim Floyd made a terrible decision to leave Taj Gibson in the game after he picked up his second foul early in the first half. I know it was a big game and having Taj in there helps tremendously, but ultimately, it hurt the Trojans because he picked up his third foul shortly after. Taking Gibson out after the second foul would probably have enabled Floyd to bring his star player back in the later part of the first half.
-The opening minutes of the game, when UCLA jumped out to a 19-8 lead, were very bad for the Trojans. Against a great team like the Bruins, you can't afford to get down big early. Luckily, USC was able to battle back, but they have to start better in their upcoming Pac-10 games.
-DeMar DeRozan was a force to be reckoned with in the first half. He had 11 points and showed the variety of ways in which he can score. DeRozan had a couple drives to the hole, a layup or two after offensive rebounds, and several pull-up jumpers off the dribble. The thing that I was so impressed with was his outside shooting. It's clear that he's been working hard on it after struggling early in the season, and it's really starting to pay off. UCLA did a good job limiting DeRozan to 4 points in the second half, but if he continues to play how he did in the first, DeMar will live up to all the pre-season hype without a problem.
-Jrue Holiday looks like another Darren Collison in the making. He can handle the basketball, plays great defense, and can score in many different ways. His floater over Taj Gibson that gave UCLA the lead for good late in the second half was unbelievable. Even more importantly, he has the confidence you have to have to become an elite player. After air balling a three early in the first half and getting heckled by the student section, Holiday calmly knocked down a three a few minutes later, and only got better as the game went on. After he drained the three, he pumped his fist as he went back to the UCLA bench for a timeout. He's going to be a good one.
-Nikola Dragovic was the X-factor in the game for the Bruins. He knocked down three threes, which all seemed to come at key times. He also had a couple buckets in the lane, and was solid on the boards as well. In close rivalry games like this, you need someone unexpected to step up and deliver a big performance, and Dragovic certainly did.
-The Trojans failed to capitalize once they gained a six point lead midway through the second half. Instead of putting the nail in the coffin, they allowed the Bruins to get right back in the game. It seemed that once the Trojans got the lead, they played tentatively instead of going for the knockout punch. Give credit to the Bruins for battling back, but USC let an opportunity to put the game away, in front of a riled up home crowd, pass them by.
-Tim Floyd's coaching down the stretch was horrendous. On offense, it didn't look like the Trojans knew what they were doing. There was no urgency to get the ball into Taj Gibson, our best scoring option. We were constantly using up the entire shot clock because we couldn't find a good shot. With about a minute and a half left, the Trojans had the ball coming out of a timeout down by three. The possession that followed consisted of wasting time and Daniel Hackett dribbling around the perimeter looking for someone open. It looked like the Trojans were clueless and the shot they ended up getting was a very low percentage Dwight Lewis fade away jumper from about 15 feet. On top of the that, Floyd failed to use all of his timeouts, leaving one on the board. With 24 seconds left and down five, instead of dribbling past half court and calling a timeout, the Trojans instead wasted a bunch of time before putting in a meaningless layup with 10 seconds left. How you don't use all of your timeouts in a close game like this is inexplicable.
-The Trojans lack of depth is an issue again this year. Coming into the season, I thought depth would be an asset to this team, however when Alex Stepheson was declared ineligible and Kasey Cunningham went down with an injury, the Trojans depth took a big hit. When Leonard Washington comes back, they should have decent front court depth. However, they still won't have much depth in the back court. Donte Smith has not shown an ability to be a productive back up point guard to Daniel Hackett, and Marcus Simmons has been battling injuries once again. If Smith can step up, it would be huge for the Trojans.
-USC is a much better rebounding team than they were a year ago. They don't necessarily have much better size, but it is clear that Coach Floyd has made it a priority to rebound the basketball. Of course, it helps to have maybe the best rebounder in the conference in Taj Gibson on the squad. I believe USC has out-rebounded all but one of their opponents this season.
-Both teams are worse than they were a year ago, especially the Bruins. UCLA lost Russell Westbrook, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Kevin Love to the NBA, and it showed. Their normally stingy defense under coach Ben Howland created only 8 turnovers, and they had several stretches when they had trouble scoring. Last year, if Taj Gibson missed most of the first half with foul trouble, the Bruins would have put USC away. Instead, they let the Trojans stay right in the game. Also, after jumping out to a 19-8 lead, they let the Trojans come back. As for USC, they at least have the potential to be as good if not better than they were a year ago. Right now, however, they are struggling to score without O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson. Depth in the back court is again an issue, and as a result, Daniel Hackett is playing a ton of minutes. When Leonard Washington comes back, USC will be an even better rebounding team and will have another scoring threat in the post. If USC can put everything together, they can be a dangerous team in the Pac-10.
-The past two losses have been very damaging to USC's hopes for a Pac-10 title. Losing to Oregon State, even if it was on the road, is completely unacceptable. Now, the Trojans need to pick up some wins, especially on the road, that they weren't expected to get. The first order of business, however, will be to beat a very good Arizona State team at home on Thursday, and a solid Arizona team here on Saturday. The Trojans must start winning again quickly, or their hopes for a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance, let alone a Pac-10 title, will be lost.
Back here with analysis before and after Thursday's game against ASU. Thanks for reading. Fight On.
-The Trojans remarkably were able to stay in the game in the first half despite Taj Gibson missing most of it because of foul trouble. Keith Wilkinson knocked down some big shots, and Wilkinson and Nikola Vucevic did a pretty good job on the boards. Marcus Johnson also gave the Trojans some solid minutes. It certainly helped that Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute no longer make up an imposing Bruins front court, but nonetheless, give credit to Wilkinson, Vucevic, and Johnson.
-Tim Floyd made a terrible decision to leave Taj Gibson in the game after he picked up his second foul early in the first half. I know it was a big game and having Taj in there helps tremendously, but ultimately, it hurt the Trojans because he picked up his third foul shortly after. Taking Gibson out after the second foul would probably have enabled Floyd to bring his star player back in the later part of the first half.
-The opening minutes of the game, when UCLA jumped out to a 19-8 lead, were very bad for the Trojans. Against a great team like the Bruins, you can't afford to get down big early. Luckily, USC was able to battle back, but they have to start better in their upcoming Pac-10 games.
-DeMar DeRozan was a force to be reckoned with in the first half. He had 11 points and showed the variety of ways in which he can score. DeRozan had a couple drives to the hole, a layup or two after offensive rebounds, and several pull-up jumpers off the dribble. The thing that I was so impressed with was his outside shooting. It's clear that he's been working hard on it after struggling early in the season, and it's really starting to pay off. UCLA did a good job limiting DeRozan to 4 points in the second half, but if he continues to play how he did in the first, DeMar will live up to all the pre-season hype without a problem.
-Jrue Holiday looks like another Darren Collison in the making. He can handle the basketball, plays great defense, and can score in many different ways. His floater over Taj Gibson that gave UCLA the lead for good late in the second half was unbelievable. Even more importantly, he has the confidence you have to have to become an elite player. After air balling a three early in the first half and getting heckled by the student section, Holiday calmly knocked down a three a few minutes later, and only got better as the game went on. After he drained the three, he pumped his fist as he went back to the UCLA bench for a timeout. He's going to be a good one.
-Nikola Dragovic was the X-factor in the game for the Bruins. He knocked down three threes, which all seemed to come at key times. He also had a couple buckets in the lane, and was solid on the boards as well. In close rivalry games like this, you need someone unexpected to step up and deliver a big performance, and Dragovic certainly did.
-The Trojans failed to capitalize once they gained a six point lead midway through the second half. Instead of putting the nail in the coffin, they allowed the Bruins to get right back in the game. It seemed that once the Trojans got the lead, they played tentatively instead of going for the knockout punch. Give credit to the Bruins for battling back, but USC let an opportunity to put the game away, in front of a riled up home crowd, pass them by.
-Tim Floyd's coaching down the stretch was horrendous. On offense, it didn't look like the Trojans knew what they were doing. There was no urgency to get the ball into Taj Gibson, our best scoring option. We were constantly using up the entire shot clock because we couldn't find a good shot. With about a minute and a half left, the Trojans had the ball coming out of a timeout down by three. The possession that followed consisted of wasting time and Daniel Hackett dribbling around the perimeter looking for someone open. It looked like the Trojans were clueless and the shot they ended up getting was a very low percentage Dwight Lewis fade away jumper from about 15 feet. On top of the that, Floyd failed to use all of his timeouts, leaving one on the board. With 24 seconds left and down five, instead of dribbling past half court and calling a timeout, the Trojans instead wasted a bunch of time before putting in a meaningless layup with 10 seconds left. How you don't use all of your timeouts in a close game like this is inexplicable.
-The Trojans lack of depth is an issue again this year. Coming into the season, I thought depth would be an asset to this team, however when Alex Stepheson was declared ineligible and Kasey Cunningham went down with an injury, the Trojans depth took a big hit. When Leonard Washington comes back, they should have decent front court depth. However, they still won't have much depth in the back court. Donte Smith has not shown an ability to be a productive back up point guard to Daniel Hackett, and Marcus Simmons has been battling injuries once again. If Smith can step up, it would be huge for the Trojans.
-USC is a much better rebounding team than they were a year ago. They don't necessarily have much better size, but it is clear that Coach Floyd has made it a priority to rebound the basketball. Of course, it helps to have maybe the best rebounder in the conference in Taj Gibson on the squad. I believe USC has out-rebounded all but one of their opponents this season.
-Both teams are worse than they were a year ago, especially the Bruins. UCLA lost Russell Westbrook, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Kevin Love to the NBA, and it showed. Their normally stingy defense under coach Ben Howland created only 8 turnovers, and they had several stretches when they had trouble scoring. Last year, if Taj Gibson missed most of the first half with foul trouble, the Bruins would have put USC away. Instead, they let the Trojans stay right in the game. Also, after jumping out to a 19-8 lead, they let the Trojans come back. As for USC, they at least have the potential to be as good if not better than they were a year ago. Right now, however, they are struggling to score without O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson. Depth in the back court is again an issue, and as a result, Daniel Hackett is playing a ton of minutes. When Leonard Washington comes back, USC will be an even better rebounding team and will have another scoring threat in the post. If USC can put everything together, they can be a dangerous team in the Pac-10.
-The past two losses have been very damaging to USC's hopes for a Pac-10 title. Losing to Oregon State, even if it was on the road, is completely unacceptable. Now, the Trojans need to pick up some wins, especially on the road, that they weren't expected to get. The first order of business, however, will be to beat a very good Arizona State team at home on Thursday, and a solid Arizona team here on Saturday. The Trojans must start winning again quickly, or their hopes for a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance, let alone a Pac-10 title, will be lost.
Back here with analysis before and after Thursday's game against ASU. Thanks for reading. Fight On.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Crosstown Showdown
Huge early season test for the USC Men's Basketball team tonight as they host the rival Bruins. It's a very important game for two reasons: (1) It's at home and (2) the Trojans can't afford to fall into an early hole in Pac-10 play. I'll be back with analysis in this spot after the game. Galen Center will be rocking. Let's play.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
2008 Vikings in Review: Still More Questions Than Answers
It was tough being at the Metrodome this past Sunday and watching the Vikings season come to an end. Unfortunately, in the loss to the Eagles, we saw all of the negatives that plagued this team throughout the year: Terrible quarterback play, awful in-game coaching, zero clock management skills, and bad play calling. Obviously, heading into this off-season the biggest question will be if Tarvaris Jackson is the right quarterback for this team. I'll address that and several other questions below. I'll also cover the good and the bad of the 2008 Vikings.
The Good
-Run defense was outstanding again. For the third straight year, the Vikings were #1 in the NFL against the rush. The Williams Brothers are the best defensive tackles in the league.
-The pass defense dramatically improved. Acquiring Jared Allen was the main reason this happened because he took a lot of pressure off the secondary with his ability to get to the quarterback. However, another reason for the ascent of the pass defense was the improvement of Cedric Griffin and Chad Greenway. Both of these young players played with a lot more confidence as the season went along and began to emerge as young stars on this team and in this league. Leslie Frazier and the entire defensive staff deserve a lot of credit because they really didn't take much of a hit after losing pro bowl caliber linebacker E.J. Henderson early in the season.
-Our two-headed rushing attack was very good. Adrian Peterson got even better in his second year and Chester Taylor was among the league's best backs on third down. The Vikings rushing attack is clearly the strength of this offense.
-Our pass rush was excellent thanks to the acquisition of Jared Allen. Allen had 14.5 sacks and two more in the playoff game. He constantly harassed the opposing quarterback and was exactly what we expected him to be.
-Nearly all of our major off-season acquisitions paid off. I discussed the positive impact of Jared Allen above. Bernard Berrian provided the big play threat that we needed. Madieu Williams played well after missing much of the early part of the year due to injury. The only acquisition that really didn't pay off was Thomas Tapeh, who didn't even make it through the season.
-Visanthe Shiancoe emerged as one of the best tight ends in the league. This was maybe the most surprising possitive development this season. I never saw it coming and like many other fans was calling for Shiancoe to be released. Visanthe deserves a lot of credit for proving everyone wrong and working hard to get his game better.
-The Vikings won 10 games and their first division title since 2000. That is always the first goal of every team coming into the season and the Vikings were able to overcome a lot of adversity and get the job done.
The Bad
-Tarvaris Jackson didn't develop into a quarterback that we can trust to lead this team for years to come. Coming into the season the quarterback position was the biggest question, and it remains the biggest question today. Gus Frerrotte did a pretty good job, going 8-3 as a starter, but started to regress and is clearly not the answer going forward. Unfortunately, neither is T-Jack, in my opinion. When Tarvaris came back in the middle of the Detroit game, it really looked like he had turned the corner. He played great against Arizona, but his regression started in the Atlanta game and culminated with a dreadful performance against Philly in the playoffs. When Jackson returned he looked like a completely different quarterback. However, in his terrible game against the Eagles, he displayed all of the traits that forced Brad Childress to bench him in the first place: staring down receivers, inaccuracy, bad decision making, and a complete inability to lead a two minute drill. Tarvaris is still the biggest question heading into this off-season, however, this time around he better not be the answer at the quarterback position.
-The Vikings failed to get Adrian Peterson the ball in a variety of different ways. AD is clearly the most talented player on the team and maybe in the league, yet we saw no creativity by the coaching staff in terms of getting him involved in the passing game. This is in part due to his terrible ability in blitz pickup, which must improve next season. Against Philly, I really thought we would try some screens to Adrian to try to capitalize on Philly's blitzing. Unfortunately, the coaching staff never made it happen.
-Speaking of the coaching, it was mediocre at best. You only need to look at the Eagles game to see the ineptitude of Brad Childress as an in-game coach. He inexplicably declined a holding penalty that most likely would have forced the Eagles to attempt a longer field goal, he couldn't decide weather or not to run out the clock at the end of the first half, his halftime adjustments were non-existent, and the play calling was the same kind of vanilla variety that we saw all season. In a playoff game one would expect to see a new wrinkle in the play calling that we didn't show during the regular season, but at least on offense, nothing changed. Some of the fan criticism of Childress is probably over the line, but a lot of it is completely justified. The coaching on Sunday was dreadful. I don't know if this team can ever win at a high level with Brad Childress as head coach.
-Our passing game wasn't much better than it was last year. Bernard Berrian certainly provided the deep threat we needed, but because of the lack of a legit quarterback, the passing attack was still near the bottom of the league.
-Adrian Peterson had some troubling fumbling issues, especially at the end of the season. I don't think it will be a huge problem in the future, however, because he didn't fumble at all when he was at Oklahoma. Still, it's a cause for concern and Adrian single handedly cost us the Atlanta game with his four fumbles.
-The special teams unit was one of the worst in NFL history, no exageration. We allowed four punt return touchdowns. On Sunday, Desean Jackson changed the game with his long punt returns. Losing Heath Farwell was probably the injury that hurt the Vikes the most. His absense was noticible Sunday and throughout the rest of the season.
Questions Coming Into Next Season
-Who will be the quarterback of this team next season? If it's Tarvaris Jackson, expect there to be several blackouts. This fan base already despises Childress, but will tolerate him if he continues to win games. The experiment with T-Jack has to end, in my opinion. He has failed to come through in several big spots. He has the physical tools, but the all-important confidence factor is not there, and he seems to get more nervous and stare down receivers more as the games get bigger. The list of possible replacements for Jackson is lengthy. It includes: Brett Favre, Matt Cassell, Jeff Garcia, Carson Palmer, Derrick Anderson, Sage Rosenfels, David Carr, and many others. I'm not sure who I want yet, but one things I am sure about is that we have to have a solid veteran quarterback leading this team. With all the other pieces in place for a Super Bowl run, we can't afford to take a gamble and draft a young QB to start next year.
-Will the coaching improve? As I mentioned above, there were clear issues with Brad Childress and his in-game coaching and his vanilla offense this year. If the coaching doesn't improve, I don't see how we can win at a championship level.
-Will Lezlie Frazier be back as defensive coordinator? Right now, I'm leaning towards Frazier getting a head coaching job. I know Frazier is a great coach, but as long as we keep our great defensive players and get E.J. Henderson back, the new coordinator would have to be completely inept not to succeed with our defense.
-Will Darren Sharper and Matt Birk return? I'm thinking both will be gone. Neither played great this year. Sharper is better in a defense that plays man coverage because he is more free to roam and make plays. Paul Allen had predicted for weeks that Sharper will end up in Pittsburgh next season. After listening to Matt Birk after the game on Sunday, it sounded like he will retire. If he decides to keep playing, I don't think the Vikings will offer him a contract because his play regressed this year and he'll be too expensive. If it's not too expensive, however, I would re-sign Birk because he is a great leader and can still play at a fairly high level.
There are several other off-season questions, which I will address in later posts. In general, I thought the 2008 Vikings season was successful in some ways and disappointing in others. It was successful because they won 10 games and a division championship. However, it was also disappointing because the quarterback question didn't get answered and we didn't play well in the playoff game. It was definitely a fun and wild ride. Should be an interesting off-season. This team is certainly capable and close to winning a Super Bowl if it puts a few more pieces together. SKOL.
The Good
-Run defense was outstanding again. For the third straight year, the Vikings were #1 in the NFL against the rush. The Williams Brothers are the best defensive tackles in the league.
-The pass defense dramatically improved. Acquiring Jared Allen was the main reason this happened because he took a lot of pressure off the secondary with his ability to get to the quarterback. However, another reason for the ascent of the pass defense was the improvement of Cedric Griffin and Chad Greenway. Both of these young players played with a lot more confidence as the season went along and began to emerge as young stars on this team and in this league. Leslie Frazier and the entire defensive staff deserve a lot of credit because they really didn't take much of a hit after losing pro bowl caliber linebacker E.J. Henderson early in the season.
-Our two-headed rushing attack was very good. Adrian Peterson got even better in his second year and Chester Taylor was among the league's best backs on third down. The Vikings rushing attack is clearly the strength of this offense.
-Our pass rush was excellent thanks to the acquisition of Jared Allen. Allen had 14.5 sacks and two more in the playoff game. He constantly harassed the opposing quarterback and was exactly what we expected him to be.
-Nearly all of our major off-season acquisitions paid off. I discussed the positive impact of Jared Allen above. Bernard Berrian provided the big play threat that we needed. Madieu Williams played well after missing much of the early part of the year due to injury. The only acquisition that really didn't pay off was Thomas Tapeh, who didn't even make it through the season.
-Visanthe Shiancoe emerged as one of the best tight ends in the league. This was maybe the most surprising possitive development this season. I never saw it coming and like many other fans was calling for Shiancoe to be released. Visanthe deserves a lot of credit for proving everyone wrong and working hard to get his game better.
-The Vikings won 10 games and their first division title since 2000. That is always the first goal of every team coming into the season and the Vikings were able to overcome a lot of adversity and get the job done.
The Bad
-Tarvaris Jackson didn't develop into a quarterback that we can trust to lead this team for years to come. Coming into the season the quarterback position was the biggest question, and it remains the biggest question today. Gus Frerrotte did a pretty good job, going 8-3 as a starter, but started to regress and is clearly not the answer going forward. Unfortunately, neither is T-Jack, in my opinion. When Tarvaris came back in the middle of the Detroit game, it really looked like he had turned the corner. He played great against Arizona, but his regression started in the Atlanta game and culminated with a dreadful performance against Philly in the playoffs. When Jackson returned he looked like a completely different quarterback. However, in his terrible game against the Eagles, he displayed all of the traits that forced Brad Childress to bench him in the first place: staring down receivers, inaccuracy, bad decision making, and a complete inability to lead a two minute drill. Tarvaris is still the biggest question heading into this off-season, however, this time around he better not be the answer at the quarterback position.
-The Vikings failed to get Adrian Peterson the ball in a variety of different ways. AD is clearly the most talented player on the team and maybe in the league, yet we saw no creativity by the coaching staff in terms of getting him involved in the passing game. This is in part due to his terrible ability in blitz pickup, which must improve next season. Against Philly, I really thought we would try some screens to Adrian to try to capitalize on Philly's blitzing. Unfortunately, the coaching staff never made it happen.
-Speaking of the coaching, it was mediocre at best. You only need to look at the Eagles game to see the ineptitude of Brad Childress as an in-game coach. He inexplicably declined a holding penalty that most likely would have forced the Eagles to attempt a longer field goal, he couldn't decide weather or not to run out the clock at the end of the first half, his halftime adjustments were non-existent, and the play calling was the same kind of vanilla variety that we saw all season. In a playoff game one would expect to see a new wrinkle in the play calling that we didn't show during the regular season, but at least on offense, nothing changed. Some of the fan criticism of Childress is probably over the line, but a lot of it is completely justified. The coaching on Sunday was dreadful. I don't know if this team can ever win at a high level with Brad Childress as head coach.
-Our passing game wasn't much better than it was last year. Bernard Berrian certainly provided the deep threat we needed, but because of the lack of a legit quarterback, the passing attack was still near the bottom of the league.
-Adrian Peterson had some troubling fumbling issues, especially at the end of the season. I don't think it will be a huge problem in the future, however, because he didn't fumble at all when he was at Oklahoma. Still, it's a cause for concern and Adrian single handedly cost us the Atlanta game with his four fumbles.
-The special teams unit was one of the worst in NFL history, no exageration. We allowed four punt return touchdowns. On Sunday, Desean Jackson changed the game with his long punt returns. Losing Heath Farwell was probably the injury that hurt the Vikes the most. His absense was noticible Sunday and throughout the rest of the season.
Questions Coming Into Next Season
-Who will be the quarterback of this team next season? If it's Tarvaris Jackson, expect there to be several blackouts. This fan base already despises Childress, but will tolerate him if he continues to win games. The experiment with T-Jack has to end, in my opinion. He has failed to come through in several big spots. He has the physical tools, but the all-important confidence factor is not there, and he seems to get more nervous and stare down receivers more as the games get bigger. The list of possible replacements for Jackson is lengthy. It includes: Brett Favre, Matt Cassell, Jeff Garcia, Carson Palmer, Derrick Anderson, Sage Rosenfels, David Carr, and many others. I'm not sure who I want yet, but one things I am sure about is that we have to have a solid veteran quarterback leading this team. With all the other pieces in place for a Super Bowl run, we can't afford to take a gamble and draft a young QB to start next year.
-Will the coaching improve? As I mentioned above, there were clear issues with Brad Childress and his in-game coaching and his vanilla offense this year. If the coaching doesn't improve, I don't see how we can win at a championship level.
-Will Lezlie Frazier be back as defensive coordinator? Right now, I'm leaning towards Frazier getting a head coaching job. I know Frazier is a great coach, but as long as we keep our great defensive players and get E.J. Henderson back, the new coordinator would have to be completely inept not to succeed with our defense.
-Will Darren Sharper and Matt Birk return? I'm thinking both will be gone. Neither played great this year. Sharper is better in a defense that plays man coverage because he is more free to roam and make plays. Paul Allen had predicted for weeks that Sharper will end up in Pittsburgh next season. After listening to Matt Birk after the game on Sunday, it sounded like he will retire. If he decides to keep playing, I don't think the Vikings will offer him a contract because his play regressed this year and he'll be too expensive. If it's not too expensive, however, I would re-sign Birk because he is a great leader and can still play at a fairly high level.
There are several other off-season questions, which I will address in later posts. In general, I thought the 2008 Vikings season was successful in some ways and disappointing in others. It was successful because they won 10 games and a division championship. However, it was also disappointing because the quarterback question didn't get answered and we didn't play well in the playoff game. It was definitely a fun and wild ride. Should be an interesting off-season. This team is certainly capable and close to winning a Super Bowl if it puts a few more pieces together. SKOL.
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