-I'm kind of upset the Twins missed a chance to sweep the Rangers in Arlington last night, but for the most part it was a good series for Minnesota. The starting pitching was solid in all three games, especially Scott Baker in the second game. Keep winning series and we'll be in the mix to win the division.
-With that being said, the Twins blew a golden opportunity last night to sweep. Francisco Liriano should have been pulled after six innings. The warning signs were there. He was losing his control, walking batters, and he had hit a wall. Rick Anderson had already made two mound visits. If Nick Punto hadn't turned a lucky double play to end the sixth inning, Liriano may have been removed even earlier. He threw 11 pitches in the sixth, only 3 of which were strikes. The control was gone. Gardy cost us the game by leaving Frankie in. He had three pitchers (Keppel, Guerrier, and Mijares) for the seventh and eighth innings. No excuses for not pulling Liriano.
-Gardy made another very questionable pitching decision by electing to use R.A. Dickey to face Ian Kinsler in the 12th inning with the winning run on second. As I've said previously, I think Dickey is on the verge of implosion. His career ERA coming into this year was over 5.00 and he has already started to show why. His track record is not a good one. The Twins got lucky that he posted a 3.30 ERA in the first half and didn't realize that he might be a fluke. Dickey is fine as a long reliever, but his role should only be in that capacity! Gardy has been using him in critical late game situations over the past few weeks and he has failed nearly every time. Joe Nathan should have been brought in to face Kinsler last night. I don't care if it wasn't a save situation. The game was on the line. Nathan is your best pitcher. So, you use your best pitcher in the biggest spot of the game instead of saving him for a situation that may never present itself later in the game. It was inexplicable to use Dickey over Nathan in that spot. We ended up losing a game and our best pitcher never got into the frickin game. Unbelievable.
-The Twins signed Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal over the weekend. Could he be the answer at second base? Maybe. He is a solid .290 career hitter and an above average fielder. One thing for sure is that he's an upgrade over Alexi Casilla. I can't stand how Casilla is back in the two hole right now. He is a weak hitting, powerless second baseman who doesn't get on base enough to be a number two hitter. He's supposed to set the table for the middle of the order, but he hasn't shown any ability whatsoever to do so this season. The Twins caught lightning in a bottle last year with Casilla, but he even started to tail off at the end of last year and it carried into this year. I'm not in favor of moving Joe Mauer to the two hole because I think your best hitter should hit third. Until Grudzielanek comes up or a trade is made, however, Mauer may need to move to the two hole. There are no other guys on this team that can bat in that spot.
-I say the Twins should deal for Freddy Sanchez, but I have little to no confidence that they will do so. I heard a couple rumored deals over the weekend. One had Liriano for Sanchez straight up. Another had Casilla and Swarzak for Sanchez and John Grabow. I would do either deal, especially the second, in a heartbeat. I don't want to trade Liriano, but what's the best he is going to be for you? A second or third starter? Sanchez is a former batting champion who fills the number two hole and the second base void immediately. He would help our team immensely. The second deal is even better because you get much needed bullpen help as well in Grabow. Bill Smith needs to pull the trigger. You have Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan, who are the best players at their positions in the AL. When you have that kind of talent, you can't wait. The time to win is now. We have a wealth of minor league prospects, so we can afford to give up a few. Plus, making a deal would show players like the afformentioned super stars that you are committed to winning, therefore increasing the likelihood that they will stay here long term.
-We have been pitiful against non-descript left handed pitchers this year and it's getting annoying. We should have scored more runs last night against the Texas starter. I'm not really sure why this is a problem for the Twins. Hopefully, they can hit lefty Gio Gonzalez hard tonight, but I'm not optimistic. At least Nick Blackburn is on the hill for us, so we should at least be in the game.
-Congrats to Nick Punto on his first home run. That is something I never thought I would see come this season.
-There's nothing wrong with Joe Mauer, so don't start panicking. Every player goes through slumps, including Baby Jesus himself. When Mauer snaps out of it, the rest of the league will pay.
-Carlos Gomez is really starting to look better at the plate. It seems like we win when whenever he plays well, so hopefully he can be a spark plug in the second half. He's an extremely exciting player to watch and Gardy will try to keep his hot bat in the lineup as much as possible.
-Twins must take at least two of three from Oakland. They are a terrible team and no one comes to their games. Take care of business, please.
-Brett Favre will reportedly make his decision by Friday on whether or not to join the Vikings this season. If, as expected, the answer is yes, the circus will begin. I can't wait. It's Mission Miami from the moment he arrives. Training camp will be awesome.
-Wolves traded Telfair, Madsen, and Craig Smith to the Clippers today for Quentin Richardson. Not much to say about this trade. We cleared up some roster space (hopefully for Ricky Rubio) and got rid of players who would rarely see the court in the future anyway. I like Craig Smith, but it was hard to find time for him with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love already on the team. Madsen is an awesome guy too and I'm glad he gets to go back to L.A. Richardson should fill a need at the 2 guard this season, but will probably only be around for one year because his contract expires after this season. Busy summer for Q, who has already been traded three times within a few months.
-Terrell Owens and Shaq are both starting reality shows, which I think is hilarious. I'm banking on Shaq's to be better.
-Sad to see Tom Watson miss out on a chance to make major history at the Open Championship over the weekend. I was really pulling for the guy that kind of looks like an older version of Tim Floyd. He made a lackluster put on 18, but the shot that killed him was his second when he knocked it past the green. He chose to use the putter on the third shot, which was questionable too. I'm not a great golfing mind, by any means, but I had fun watching the old guy over the weekend, even though Tiger missed the cut.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Minnesota Twins Mid-Season Report
It's time to analyze the performance of my favorite baseball team through the first half of the season. Below, I will briefly comment on every player, give my surprises and disappointments from the first half, and lay out what the Twins have to do in the second half in order to win the AL Central.
When evaluating the players, I included Runs Above Replacement Value (RAR) for the batters and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) along with the usual stats you see everyday. These two statistics are very indicative of how valuable a player is and how well a pitcher is actually pitching.
BATTERS
CATHERS
Joe Mauer (.373 avg, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 41.0 RAR)
There isn't much I can say about this guy that isn't already known. Even though he missed all of April, he didn't miss a beat when he returned on May 1. Mauer is the best player in the American League and the fact that he has added more power to his game makes him even more valuable. His home run rate has slown down since a torrid pace in May, however, he still is taking more chances in hitters counts. Mauer handles his pitching staff as well as anyone in baseball and basically shuts down the running game of opposing teams. There's nothing more I can ask of this guy. He leads the Twins in RAR by far.
Mike Redmond (.236 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1.2 RAR)
Luckily, Red Dog hasn't had to play much since Mauer's return. He is valuable to this team because of his club house presence, but we can't expect much from him on the field anymore. I think that Morales should take over as the backup, but I understand the committment to Redmond. This will probably be his last season in Minnesota.
Jose Morales (.343 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7.0 RAR)
This kid has done everything the Twins have asked of him this season. He hit well when filling in for Mauer and has been up and down between Minnesota and Rochester three times. He could be a key pinch hitter later in the season.
INFIELDERS
Justin Morneau (.311 avg, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 29.8 RAR)
Just another great year for the best first baseman in the American League. Morneau has done it all and really been the anchor of the Twins lineup in the clean up hole. He carried the Twins offense when Mauer was out and continues to be the biggest power threat on the team. One thing I would like to see him improve is his patience. Sometimes, he gets too anxious and tries to do too much. When he is selective at the plate, he is as dangerous a hitter as anyone in baseball. I also want his consistency to improve. He can get streaky at times. The key for him will be being productive in September, the month where he fell off dramatically and lost the MVP last season.
Nick Punto (.201 avg, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 0.1 RAR)
Punto has been a huge disappointment again this year. Surprise, surprise. It seems that every time we give this guy an everyday job, he fails. When we use him in his role he should be used in (utility guy), he does a good job. Punto might see less time in the second half, due to the recent call up of Alexi Casilla. Obviously, Punto's defense is what keeps his RAR hovering above zero, but his lackluster offense make him un-worthy of an everyday job. He is the fifth highest paid Twins at $4.5 million. What were the Twins thinking when they offered him that deal?!
Brendan Harris (.275 avg, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 6.8 RAR)
What a pleasant surprise Harris has been since he stepped into the everyday job at shortstop. Harris has batted everywhere in the lineup and proven his versatility in the field as well. I don't love his range at short, but he has made some spectacular plays for the Twins. This guy won't blow you away, but he has a decent bat with a little pop.
Joe Crede (.234 avg, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 21.1 RAR)
As regular readers know, this guy is my favorite player on the Twins. He has played gold glove caliber defense at third and provided some nice pop in the lineup. Plus, he gives the Twins a veteran presence and is a consumate professional. I love the way Crede quietly goes about his business. He already has two walk offs, but the best part of his game is his outstanding defense. He is a vacuum at third base and has finally held down that position for Minnesota. His 21.1 RAR is third on the team. His career numbers indicate his average should slightly improve in the second half as well. Crede's health was the major concern headed into the season, but he has stayed on the field and is 6th on the team in at bats.
Matt Tolbert (.178 avg, 1 HR, 12 RBI, -9.3 RAR)
What a disaster Tolbert has been. He finally got the demotion he had been deserving for months with the call up of Alexi Casilla. My god has he been bad. Maybe Joe Vavra deserves the blame, but it looks like Tolbert tries to hit the ball out of the park every time he swings. He hits way to many pop ups because of his upper cut swing. Tolbert dipping and turning over of his wrists causes this problem and it hasn't improved. This guy had every chance to earn a starting job considering the ineptitude of Nick Punto, yet he failed to step up. Please keep him in the minors.
Brian Buscher (.210 avg, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0.9 RAR)
Another bad player on this team. Thankfully, Joe Crede's health has kept Buscher off the field for the most part. I just fail to see what this guy does that keeps him on the squad. He can't move in the field and he is barely over the Mendoza Line at the plate. The one thing Buscher does well is take good at bats. He sees a lot of pitches, so I guess he can at least work pitchers before he strikes out.
Alexi Casilla (.180 avg, 0 HR, 5 RBI, -10.9 RAR)
Casilla was absolutely dreadful during his two stints with the Twins this year. Horrible fielding and horrible hitting. The Twins were expecting him to hold down second base after a terrific second half last year, however, all he has done is earn two demotions to Rochester. However, despite all of that, Casilla could be one of the keys for the Twins in the second half. If, as expected, they can't work out a deal for Pittsburgh's Freddy Sanchez, Casilla must step up and perform. His biggest contribution could be holding down the number two spot in the batting order, where players other than Joe Mauer have combined to hit .190 this year. It is pivotal for Casilla and Denard Span to get on in front of Mauer, Morneau, etc. Let's hope the Twins can catch lightning in a bottle again. Casilla has been doing well in the minors, hitting over .340, but it's a big gamble to assume he'll succeed up in the majors.
OUTFIELDERS
Denard Span (.292 avg, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 18.7 RAR)
Span is one of the better lead off hitters in the game. There isn't much to complain about here. Span is extremely patient, draws walks, gets on base, and is a threat on the bases with his speed. He is one of the more consistent players on the Twins as well. Span's defense also deserves praise. He covers a ton of ground and can play any of the three outfield positions. His RAR is fourth on the team.
Michael Cuddyer (.273 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 14.0 RAR)
Regular readers know that Cuddy is one of my least favorite players on the team. However, even I will admit that he has had a solid season thus far. His power has returned and he has hit for a decent average as well. There's no question that the Twins are better with a healthy Cuddyer than without him. Some things he does continue to torment me, though. Some of Cuddyer's at bats make him look like he shouldn't be in the majors. He is a guess hitter, which is why some of his swings are so ugly. Cuddy needs to be more patient at the plate and stop swinging at sliders and curves low and away. Cuddyer has also made some base running mistakes that go directly against the "smart baseball" the Twins preach. His defense in right field is very overrated by Twins fans. He has a good arm, but he has horrible range and has trouble going back on balls. I know I am hyper-critical of the man we call Cuddy, but he has definitely exceeded my expectations his year. The key for him is staying on the field in the second half.
Jason Kubel (.311 avg, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 14.7 RAR)
What a pleasant surprise this guy has been in holding down the DH for the Twins. Kubel continues to show why he was so highly touted as he moved through the minor leagues. Kubs has provided excellent protection for Justin Morneau and continued to provide clutch hits for this squad. His power presence has been crucial. He does need to improve his hitting against lefties. Kubel is probably the most underrated player on the roster.
Delmon Young (.266 avg, 3 HR, 25 RBI, -13.8 RAR)
I have always preached patience with Delmon, but he has once again failed to live up to expectations. The power we all thought we were getting upon his arrival has been non existent. Of his 44 hits, only 9 have been for extra bases. He's been an extremely frustrating player for Twins fans to watch over the past two years, primarily because of how highly touted he was when he came here in the Matt Garza deal. One thing I will say, however, is that Young and Carlos Gomez have not received regular playing time. The fact that the Twins decided to keep both before the season has helped in some respects, but also probably has both players constantly putting too much preasure on themselves to stay in the lineup. Young, at least, has been listening more to the coaches this year and has shown steady improvement over the last month. His RAR ranks last on the team and in the majors.
Carlos Gomez (.235 avg, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 1.2 RAR)
Gomez, like Young, has been hurt by a lack of every day playing time. While he is still very undisciplined at the plate, Gomez has drawn more walks and struck out far less than last year. I still believe Go Go can be a very good player down the road and we must be patient with him. I do like what he brings to the table as a fourth outfielder. He can pinch run and be a defensive replacement late in games. When he is in there, Gomez must bunt more than he has so far this year. His lack of bunting is pretty much singlehandedly responsible for his drop off in batting average. Go Go's defense deserves mention here. He is probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball, which is why his RAR is still over zero.
PITCHERS
Nick Blackburn (8-4, 3.06 ERA, 29 BB, 54 K, 3.97 xFIP)
Blackburn has stepped up and been the ace of the staff during the first half of the season. He is a model of consistency and gives the Twins a chance to win every time out. I love how he works quickly, isn't afraid of pitching to contact, and goes deep into games. His sinker has been money. However, there is reason to assume that Blackburn's numbers will drop off a little bit in the second half. His high ground ball rate of 40% and his low strike out rate make it tough to sustain his stellar ERA, as his xFIP suggests. Regardless, this guy has proven to be a reliable starter for Minnesota.
Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.47 ERA, 46 BB, 93K, 4.53 xFIP)
Liriano has been a major disappointment so far for the Twins. They expected him to be a front of the line starter, but he has failed to establish any consistency. Liriano is a major key in the second half for the Twins. While he isn't the same dominant pitcher he was in 2006, opposing hitters have said his slider still has good bite and his fastball still has good movement. The key for Frankie is locating his fastball. When he does that and doesn't over throw, he is solid. Liriano did have an ERA under 4.00 in June. One other key for him is having a significant speed difference between his fastball and his change up. When his fastball was 96 mph, an 84 mph change was acceptable. Now, however, since his fastball is only around 91 mph, his change must be slower as well. Something to keep an eye on.
Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42 ERA, 21 BB, 82 K, 4.41 xFIP)
Bake has been the other major disappointment in Minnesota's starting rotation. Like Liriano, the Twins expected Scott to be a front of the line starter. He started off dreadfully and has shown some improvement, but he must step up more if the Twins are to make the playoffs. Baker leaves too many balls up in the zone. In addition, I don't like his seemingly soft attitude. He usually shuts it down after 100 pitches and doesn't show the toughness you want to see out of aces, which is what Baker is supposed to be. It's time for him to start performing better.
Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86 ERA, 15 BB, 75K, 4.22 xFIP)
Slow Ride has been a winning machine for the Twins so far, but largely because of great run support. When he comes back from his wrist injury, Slowey has to be more consistent. He is a control machine and I like that, but he must be perfect with his location because he doesn't have terrific stuff. If he can mix up his pitches more, Slowey can be solid in the second half. I like how he goes up the ladder with his fastball for strikeouts, and would like to see him do so more. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him, but Slowey will always give the Twins a chance to win because of his pinpoint control.
Glen Perkins (4-5, 4.71 ERA, 16 BB, 36K, 3.96 xFIP)
Perk has been terrific when healthy this season. He went 8 innings in his first three starts and has been pretty good since coming off the DL in early June. The key for Perkins is staying out of big innings early. He usually improves as the game goes along. I love it when Perkins works inside on right handed hitters. That is when he's most effective. Considering he's only supposed to be a number five starter, I don't have much criticism of Perkins so far except for his lack of consistency.
R.A. Dickey (1-1, 3.25 ERA, 22BB, 38 K, 4.28 xFIP)
Dickey has been maybe the most pleasant surprise this season. The knuckleballer has virtually saved the Twins bullpen with his ability to pitch multiple innings and the change of pace he provides. However, I think he may be on the verge of implosion if Manager Ron Gardenhire continues to use him in roles other than long relief. His high walk total makes him un-suitable for close late game situations. Hitters are starting to get used to him. Gardy must keep him in long relief, nothing more.
Matt Guerrier (4-0, 2.41 ERA, 8 BB, 27 K, 4.14 xFIP)
Guerrier has enjoyed a good bounce back season, solidifying an eighth inning set up role. The key is not to over use him in the second half. The emergence of Jose Mijares has helped ease the workload for Matty G. His stuff isn't terrific, except for a nasty duece, but his great control allows him to be successful.
Joe Nathan (1-1, 1.31 ERA, 7 BB, 43 K, 23/25 saves, 1.93 xFIP)
The Hammer has been the best closer in baseball this season, in my opinion. This is the best I have ever seen him pitch. He has a huge arsenal of pitches that he uses. I feel incredibly confident that the game is virtually over when Nathan gets the ball. The decision the Twins made last off season to sign him to a long term deal was a terrific one.
Anthony Swarzak (2-3, 4.50 ERA, 11 BB, 18 K, 4.38 xFIP)
Swarzak has done a good job as a fill in starter for the Twins this season. He has a good moving fastball and a solid 12-6 curveball. Control is something that needs improvement, but expect this guy to contribute more this season and in the future.
Jose Mijares (0-1, 1.88 ERA, 14 BB, 25 K, 4.25 xFIP)
This guy has come so far since coming into spring training overweight and not making the team. While he sometimes struggles with control, Mijares has been a solid lefty Gardy can call on late in games. His high 4.25 xFIP is a bit concerning and is probably because he leaves too many balls up. However, he can get away with more mistakes than most because he has terrific stuff.
Jesse Crain (2-3, 8.15 ERA, 12 BB, 13 K, 5.84 xFIP)
Crain, along with Alexi Casilla, is right up there for biggest disappointment this season. I was completely wrong about this guy. His fastball is straight and he can't locate it and he over throws far too often. Hopefully, Jesse can get himself right at Rochester, but I wouldn't bank on it. The Twins hope he can contribute later this year, but that is only possible if he gets his head on his shoulders.
Bob Keppel (0-0, 0.73 ERA, 6 BB, 6K, 4.04 xFIP)
Keppel has come up from Rochester and been extremely good in his short time here. He features a 95 mph sinker that just dives out of the zone. Unlike former Twins Luis Ayala, he actually succeeds at getting ground balls with his sinker. Imagine that. His high xFIP is due to his bad K/BB ratio. Eventually, if he doesn't cut down on the walks, his ERA will rise exponentially. I have been waiting for Keppel to implode, but I have to admit that he has looked great so far. The more he can continue to succeed, he more time he will see in pivotal situations.
Brian Duensing (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 5 BB, 4 K, 6.15 xFIP)
I haven't seen enough of Duensing to make any hard conclusions, but he hasn't looked all that promising thus far. Too many walks and too many balls left up in the zone. He won't see much time in big spots, but he may ocassionally be called on to get a lefty out late in games.
Sean Henn (0-3, 7.15 ERA, 8 BB, 9 K, 6.15 xFIP)
This guy was a complete disaster when he was here and I don't want to see him pick up the ball for the Twins ever again. Does that make it clear what I think of Henn's abilities?
First Half Surprises:
-R.A. Dickey being a reliable long reliever. No one saw this coming when we signed him.
-Joe Crede staying healthy. I loved the signing, but wasn't completely confident he could stay on the field. He has done just that and solidified the hot corner.
-Nick Blackburn becoming a front of the rotation starter. I didn't think he had the stuff. He has been Mr. Consistency for the Twins in the first half.
-Bob Keppel coming up from Rochester and dominating in his first few apperaces. He has added valuable depth to the Twins pen.
-Brendan Harris becoming a decent every day player. Gardy certainly never saw this one coming. He always said Harris was only a good utility guy. The defense at short and solid bat have been a welcome surprise.
-Kevin Slowey winning 10 games. He hasn't been as good as that number suggests, but nonetheless it is surprising.
-Joe Mauer hitting 15 homeruns. Even the most loyal Mauer fans had given up that he would ever hit for power. Never underestimate Baby Jesus.
-Michael Cuddyer staying healthy for the first time since 2006.
-Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares holding down the eighth inning.
-Jason Kubel becoming a solid power hitting threat in the middle of the lineup.
-Jose Morales being a solid hitter.
First Half Disappointments:
-Alexi Casilla completely failing to hold down second base. His needs to perform in the second half.
-Jesse Crain being a huge bust and getting sent down.
-Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano failing to step up as top of the rotation guys.
-Nick Punto again failing to be a decent every day player (Maybe surprising to Gardy, certainly not to me)
-Delmon Young showing no noticeable improvement from last season.
-Carlos Gomez doing the same.
-Matt Tolbert hitting under .200
What do the Twins Need to do to win the AL Central?
We can talk about acquiring players like Freddy Sanchez and Matt Capps to improve this team, but regardless, this team's fate will be determined in large part by two players already on the roster: Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. As I've already mentioned, these two pitchers were expected to be the top two guys for the Twins at the front of the rotation. For the most part, both have failed. The possitive thing is that both have been trending in the right direction. I have no doubt that Baker can continue to improve, based on his second half performance from last year. I'm more doubtful with Liriano, but if he can command his fastball, he will be fine. Because of these two guys, the Twins rotation hasn't gotten on a great run yet. When they made their run last year, the Twins had all five starters giving them a chance to win every time out. Minnesota has a pretty solid offense, so if the pitchers step up, this team will win the division. And it comes down to Baker and Liriano. Another player to watch is Alexi Casilla. If he can do anything close to what he did last year in the number two hole, this already dangerous Twins offense will become even more dangerous.
I like the Twins chances. I really think it will come down to Chicago and Minnesota. Detroit doesn't have much behind Verlander and Jackson in their rotation, with Rick Porcello continuing to fade. In addition, the depth in their lineup is very weak. Miguel Cabrera has too much to carry in the middle and the bottom of their order is punchless. As for Chicago, I think they don't have enough pitching. Buehrle is terrific, but Floyd and Danks have been much like Baker and Liriano so far this year. As for their 4 and 5 starters, it's pretty much a crap shoot. I love the White Sox lineup, especially since they moved Alexi Ramirez to the number two spot. Ramirez, a Cuba native, is one of my favorite players. However, they also have trouble at the bottom of their lineup.
I like the Twins in this division because of their depth. They have five capable starting pitchers, the best two players in the division, and the best closer in the division. The Twins, like Chicago and Detroit, have trouble producing at the bottom of their lineup, but hopefully Casilla will allow Harris to move down in the order and help that production. It will definitely be an interesting race. The first team to go on a long winning streak could be the champion. As the Twins learned last year, every game is critical. They can't give away as many games as they did in the first half. Baker and Liriano are the key. If they pitch well, the Twins are back in the postseason. Let's get it done.
Go Twins!
When evaluating the players, I included Runs Above Replacement Value (RAR) for the batters and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) along with the usual stats you see everyday. These two statistics are very indicative of how valuable a player is and how well a pitcher is actually pitching.
BATTERS
CATHERS
Joe Mauer (.373 avg, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 41.0 RAR)
There isn't much I can say about this guy that isn't already known. Even though he missed all of April, he didn't miss a beat when he returned on May 1. Mauer is the best player in the American League and the fact that he has added more power to his game makes him even more valuable. His home run rate has slown down since a torrid pace in May, however, he still is taking more chances in hitters counts. Mauer handles his pitching staff as well as anyone in baseball and basically shuts down the running game of opposing teams. There's nothing more I can ask of this guy. He leads the Twins in RAR by far.
Mike Redmond (.236 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1.2 RAR)
Luckily, Red Dog hasn't had to play much since Mauer's return. He is valuable to this team because of his club house presence, but we can't expect much from him on the field anymore. I think that Morales should take over as the backup, but I understand the committment to Redmond. This will probably be his last season in Minnesota.
Jose Morales (.343 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7.0 RAR)
This kid has done everything the Twins have asked of him this season. He hit well when filling in for Mauer and has been up and down between Minnesota and Rochester three times. He could be a key pinch hitter later in the season.
INFIELDERS
Justin Morneau (.311 avg, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 29.8 RAR)
Just another great year for the best first baseman in the American League. Morneau has done it all and really been the anchor of the Twins lineup in the clean up hole. He carried the Twins offense when Mauer was out and continues to be the biggest power threat on the team. One thing I would like to see him improve is his patience. Sometimes, he gets too anxious and tries to do too much. When he is selective at the plate, he is as dangerous a hitter as anyone in baseball. I also want his consistency to improve. He can get streaky at times. The key for him will be being productive in September, the month where he fell off dramatically and lost the MVP last season.
Nick Punto (.201 avg, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 0.1 RAR)
Punto has been a huge disappointment again this year. Surprise, surprise. It seems that every time we give this guy an everyday job, he fails. When we use him in his role he should be used in (utility guy), he does a good job. Punto might see less time in the second half, due to the recent call up of Alexi Casilla. Obviously, Punto's defense is what keeps his RAR hovering above zero, but his lackluster offense make him un-worthy of an everyday job. He is the fifth highest paid Twins at $4.5 million. What were the Twins thinking when they offered him that deal?!
Brendan Harris (.275 avg, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 6.8 RAR)
What a pleasant surprise Harris has been since he stepped into the everyday job at shortstop. Harris has batted everywhere in the lineup and proven his versatility in the field as well. I don't love his range at short, but he has made some spectacular plays for the Twins. This guy won't blow you away, but he has a decent bat with a little pop.
Joe Crede (.234 avg, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 21.1 RAR)
As regular readers know, this guy is my favorite player on the Twins. He has played gold glove caliber defense at third and provided some nice pop in the lineup. Plus, he gives the Twins a veteran presence and is a consumate professional. I love the way Crede quietly goes about his business. He already has two walk offs, but the best part of his game is his outstanding defense. He is a vacuum at third base and has finally held down that position for Minnesota. His 21.1 RAR is third on the team. His career numbers indicate his average should slightly improve in the second half as well. Crede's health was the major concern headed into the season, but he has stayed on the field and is 6th on the team in at bats.
Matt Tolbert (.178 avg, 1 HR, 12 RBI, -9.3 RAR)
What a disaster Tolbert has been. He finally got the demotion he had been deserving for months with the call up of Alexi Casilla. My god has he been bad. Maybe Joe Vavra deserves the blame, but it looks like Tolbert tries to hit the ball out of the park every time he swings. He hits way to many pop ups because of his upper cut swing. Tolbert dipping and turning over of his wrists causes this problem and it hasn't improved. This guy had every chance to earn a starting job considering the ineptitude of Nick Punto, yet he failed to step up. Please keep him in the minors.
Brian Buscher (.210 avg, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0.9 RAR)
Another bad player on this team. Thankfully, Joe Crede's health has kept Buscher off the field for the most part. I just fail to see what this guy does that keeps him on the squad. He can't move in the field and he is barely over the Mendoza Line at the plate. The one thing Buscher does well is take good at bats. He sees a lot of pitches, so I guess he can at least work pitchers before he strikes out.
Alexi Casilla (.180 avg, 0 HR, 5 RBI, -10.9 RAR)
Casilla was absolutely dreadful during his two stints with the Twins this year. Horrible fielding and horrible hitting. The Twins were expecting him to hold down second base after a terrific second half last year, however, all he has done is earn two demotions to Rochester. However, despite all of that, Casilla could be one of the keys for the Twins in the second half. If, as expected, they can't work out a deal for Pittsburgh's Freddy Sanchez, Casilla must step up and perform. His biggest contribution could be holding down the number two spot in the batting order, where players other than Joe Mauer have combined to hit .190 this year. It is pivotal for Casilla and Denard Span to get on in front of Mauer, Morneau, etc. Let's hope the Twins can catch lightning in a bottle again. Casilla has been doing well in the minors, hitting over .340, but it's a big gamble to assume he'll succeed up in the majors.
OUTFIELDERS
Denard Span (.292 avg, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 18.7 RAR)
Span is one of the better lead off hitters in the game. There isn't much to complain about here. Span is extremely patient, draws walks, gets on base, and is a threat on the bases with his speed. He is one of the more consistent players on the Twins as well. Span's defense also deserves praise. He covers a ton of ground and can play any of the three outfield positions. His RAR is fourth on the team.
Michael Cuddyer (.273 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 14.0 RAR)
Regular readers know that Cuddy is one of my least favorite players on the team. However, even I will admit that he has had a solid season thus far. His power has returned and he has hit for a decent average as well. There's no question that the Twins are better with a healthy Cuddyer than without him. Some things he does continue to torment me, though. Some of Cuddyer's at bats make him look like he shouldn't be in the majors. He is a guess hitter, which is why some of his swings are so ugly. Cuddy needs to be more patient at the plate and stop swinging at sliders and curves low and away. Cuddyer has also made some base running mistakes that go directly against the "smart baseball" the Twins preach. His defense in right field is very overrated by Twins fans. He has a good arm, but he has horrible range and has trouble going back on balls. I know I am hyper-critical of the man we call Cuddy, but he has definitely exceeded my expectations his year. The key for him is staying on the field in the second half.
Jason Kubel (.311 avg, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 14.7 RAR)
What a pleasant surprise this guy has been in holding down the DH for the Twins. Kubel continues to show why he was so highly touted as he moved through the minor leagues. Kubs has provided excellent protection for Justin Morneau and continued to provide clutch hits for this squad. His power presence has been crucial. He does need to improve his hitting against lefties. Kubel is probably the most underrated player on the roster.
Delmon Young (.266 avg, 3 HR, 25 RBI, -13.8 RAR)
I have always preached patience with Delmon, but he has once again failed to live up to expectations. The power we all thought we were getting upon his arrival has been non existent. Of his 44 hits, only 9 have been for extra bases. He's been an extremely frustrating player for Twins fans to watch over the past two years, primarily because of how highly touted he was when he came here in the Matt Garza deal. One thing I will say, however, is that Young and Carlos Gomez have not received regular playing time. The fact that the Twins decided to keep both before the season has helped in some respects, but also probably has both players constantly putting too much preasure on themselves to stay in the lineup. Young, at least, has been listening more to the coaches this year and has shown steady improvement over the last month. His RAR ranks last on the team and in the majors.
Carlos Gomez (.235 avg, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 1.2 RAR)
Gomez, like Young, has been hurt by a lack of every day playing time. While he is still very undisciplined at the plate, Gomez has drawn more walks and struck out far less than last year. I still believe Go Go can be a very good player down the road and we must be patient with him. I do like what he brings to the table as a fourth outfielder. He can pinch run and be a defensive replacement late in games. When he is in there, Gomez must bunt more than he has so far this year. His lack of bunting is pretty much singlehandedly responsible for his drop off in batting average. Go Go's defense deserves mention here. He is probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball, which is why his RAR is still over zero.
PITCHERS
Nick Blackburn (8-4, 3.06 ERA, 29 BB, 54 K, 3.97 xFIP)
Blackburn has stepped up and been the ace of the staff during the first half of the season. He is a model of consistency and gives the Twins a chance to win every time out. I love how he works quickly, isn't afraid of pitching to contact, and goes deep into games. His sinker has been money. However, there is reason to assume that Blackburn's numbers will drop off a little bit in the second half. His high ground ball rate of 40% and his low strike out rate make it tough to sustain his stellar ERA, as his xFIP suggests. Regardless, this guy has proven to be a reliable starter for Minnesota.
Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.47 ERA, 46 BB, 93K, 4.53 xFIP)
Liriano has been a major disappointment so far for the Twins. They expected him to be a front of the line starter, but he has failed to establish any consistency. Liriano is a major key in the second half for the Twins. While he isn't the same dominant pitcher he was in 2006, opposing hitters have said his slider still has good bite and his fastball still has good movement. The key for Frankie is locating his fastball. When he does that and doesn't over throw, he is solid. Liriano did have an ERA under 4.00 in June. One other key for him is having a significant speed difference between his fastball and his change up. When his fastball was 96 mph, an 84 mph change was acceptable. Now, however, since his fastball is only around 91 mph, his change must be slower as well. Something to keep an eye on.
Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42 ERA, 21 BB, 82 K, 4.41 xFIP)
Bake has been the other major disappointment in Minnesota's starting rotation. Like Liriano, the Twins expected Scott to be a front of the line starter. He started off dreadfully and has shown some improvement, but he must step up more if the Twins are to make the playoffs. Baker leaves too many balls up in the zone. In addition, I don't like his seemingly soft attitude. He usually shuts it down after 100 pitches and doesn't show the toughness you want to see out of aces, which is what Baker is supposed to be. It's time for him to start performing better.
Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86 ERA, 15 BB, 75K, 4.22 xFIP)
Slow Ride has been a winning machine for the Twins so far, but largely because of great run support. When he comes back from his wrist injury, Slowey has to be more consistent. He is a control machine and I like that, but he must be perfect with his location because he doesn't have terrific stuff. If he can mix up his pitches more, Slowey can be solid in the second half. I like how he goes up the ladder with his fastball for strikeouts, and would like to see him do so more. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him, but Slowey will always give the Twins a chance to win because of his pinpoint control.
Glen Perkins (4-5, 4.71 ERA, 16 BB, 36K, 3.96 xFIP)
Perk has been terrific when healthy this season. He went 8 innings in his first three starts and has been pretty good since coming off the DL in early June. The key for Perkins is staying out of big innings early. He usually improves as the game goes along. I love it when Perkins works inside on right handed hitters. That is when he's most effective. Considering he's only supposed to be a number five starter, I don't have much criticism of Perkins so far except for his lack of consistency.
R.A. Dickey (1-1, 3.25 ERA, 22BB, 38 K, 4.28 xFIP)
Dickey has been maybe the most pleasant surprise this season. The knuckleballer has virtually saved the Twins bullpen with his ability to pitch multiple innings and the change of pace he provides. However, I think he may be on the verge of implosion if Manager Ron Gardenhire continues to use him in roles other than long relief. His high walk total makes him un-suitable for close late game situations. Hitters are starting to get used to him. Gardy must keep him in long relief, nothing more.
Matt Guerrier (4-0, 2.41 ERA, 8 BB, 27 K, 4.14 xFIP)
Guerrier has enjoyed a good bounce back season, solidifying an eighth inning set up role. The key is not to over use him in the second half. The emergence of Jose Mijares has helped ease the workload for Matty G. His stuff isn't terrific, except for a nasty duece, but his great control allows him to be successful.
Joe Nathan (1-1, 1.31 ERA, 7 BB, 43 K, 23/25 saves, 1.93 xFIP)
The Hammer has been the best closer in baseball this season, in my opinion. This is the best I have ever seen him pitch. He has a huge arsenal of pitches that he uses. I feel incredibly confident that the game is virtually over when Nathan gets the ball. The decision the Twins made last off season to sign him to a long term deal was a terrific one.
Anthony Swarzak (2-3, 4.50 ERA, 11 BB, 18 K, 4.38 xFIP)
Swarzak has done a good job as a fill in starter for the Twins this season. He has a good moving fastball and a solid 12-6 curveball. Control is something that needs improvement, but expect this guy to contribute more this season and in the future.
Jose Mijares (0-1, 1.88 ERA, 14 BB, 25 K, 4.25 xFIP)
This guy has come so far since coming into spring training overweight and not making the team. While he sometimes struggles with control, Mijares has been a solid lefty Gardy can call on late in games. His high 4.25 xFIP is a bit concerning and is probably because he leaves too many balls up. However, he can get away with more mistakes than most because he has terrific stuff.
Jesse Crain (2-3, 8.15 ERA, 12 BB, 13 K, 5.84 xFIP)
Crain, along with Alexi Casilla, is right up there for biggest disappointment this season. I was completely wrong about this guy. His fastball is straight and he can't locate it and he over throws far too often. Hopefully, Jesse can get himself right at Rochester, but I wouldn't bank on it. The Twins hope he can contribute later this year, but that is only possible if he gets his head on his shoulders.
Bob Keppel (0-0, 0.73 ERA, 6 BB, 6K, 4.04 xFIP)
Keppel has come up from Rochester and been extremely good in his short time here. He features a 95 mph sinker that just dives out of the zone. Unlike former Twins Luis Ayala, he actually succeeds at getting ground balls with his sinker. Imagine that. His high xFIP is due to his bad K/BB ratio. Eventually, if he doesn't cut down on the walks, his ERA will rise exponentially. I have been waiting for Keppel to implode, but I have to admit that he has looked great so far. The more he can continue to succeed, he more time he will see in pivotal situations.
Brian Duensing (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 5 BB, 4 K, 6.15 xFIP)
I haven't seen enough of Duensing to make any hard conclusions, but he hasn't looked all that promising thus far. Too many walks and too many balls left up in the zone. He won't see much time in big spots, but he may ocassionally be called on to get a lefty out late in games.
Sean Henn (0-3, 7.15 ERA, 8 BB, 9 K, 6.15 xFIP)
This guy was a complete disaster when he was here and I don't want to see him pick up the ball for the Twins ever again. Does that make it clear what I think of Henn's abilities?
First Half Surprises:
-R.A. Dickey being a reliable long reliever. No one saw this coming when we signed him.
-Joe Crede staying healthy. I loved the signing, but wasn't completely confident he could stay on the field. He has done just that and solidified the hot corner.
-Nick Blackburn becoming a front of the rotation starter. I didn't think he had the stuff. He has been Mr. Consistency for the Twins in the first half.
-Bob Keppel coming up from Rochester and dominating in his first few apperaces. He has added valuable depth to the Twins pen.
-Brendan Harris becoming a decent every day player. Gardy certainly never saw this one coming. He always said Harris was only a good utility guy. The defense at short and solid bat have been a welcome surprise.
-Kevin Slowey winning 10 games. He hasn't been as good as that number suggests, but nonetheless it is surprising.
-Joe Mauer hitting 15 homeruns. Even the most loyal Mauer fans had given up that he would ever hit for power. Never underestimate Baby Jesus.
-Michael Cuddyer staying healthy for the first time since 2006.
-Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares holding down the eighth inning.
-Jason Kubel becoming a solid power hitting threat in the middle of the lineup.
-Jose Morales being a solid hitter.
First Half Disappointments:
-Alexi Casilla completely failing to hold down second base. His needs to perform in the second half.
-Jesse Crain being a huge bust and getting sent down.
-Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano failing to step up as top of the rotation guys.
-Nick Punto again failing to be a decent every day player (Maybe surprising to Gardy, certainly not to me)
-Delmon Young showing no noticeable improvement from last season.
-Carlos Gomez doing the same.
-Matt Tolbert hitting under .200
What do the Twins Need to do to win the AL Central?
We can talk about acquiring players like Freddy Sanchez and Matt Capps to improve this team, but regardless, this team's fate will be determined in large part by two players already on the roster: Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. As I've already mentioned, these two pitchers were expected to be the top two guys for the Twins at the front of the rotation. For the most part, both have failed. The possitive thing is that both have been trending in the right direction. I have no doubt that Baker can continue to improve, based on his second half performance from last year. I'm more doubtful with Liriano, but if he can command his fastball, he will be fine. Because of these two guys, the Twins rotation hasn't gotten on a great run yet. When they made their run last year, the Twins had all five starters giving them a chance to win every time out. Minnesota has a pretty solid offense, so if the pitchers step up, this team will win the division. And it comes down to Baker and Liriano. Another player to watch is Alexi Casilla. If he can do anything close to what he did last year in the number two hole, this already dangerous Twins offense will become even more dangerous.
I like the Twins chances. I really think it will come down to Chicago and Minnesota. Detroit doesn't have much behind Verlander and Jackson in their rotation, with Rick Porcello continuing to fade. In addition, the depth in their lineup is very weak. Miguel Cabrera has too much to carry in the middle and the bottom of their order is punchless. As for Chicago, I think they don't have enough pitching. Buehrle is terrific, but Floyd and Danks have been much like Baker and Liriano so far this year. As for their 4 and 5 starters, it's pretty much a crap shoot. I love the White Sox lineup, especially since they moved Alexi Ramirez to the number two spot. Ramirez, a Cuba native, is one of my favorite players. However, they also have trouble at the bottom of their lineup.
I like the Twins in this division because of their depth. They have five capable starting pitchers, the best two players in the division, and the best closer in the division. The Twins, like Chicago and Detroit, have trouble producing at the bottom of their lineup, but hopefully Casilla will allow Harris to move down in the order and help that production. It will definitely be an interesting race. The first team to go on a long winning streak could be the champion. As the Twins learned last year, every game is critical. They can't give away as many games as they did in the first half. Baker and Liriano are the key. If they pitch well, the Twins are back in the postseason. Let's get it done.
Go Twins!
Friday, July 10, 2009
Friday Thoughts
-Remind me, why did I ever think the Twins would beat the Yankees? I don't buy the BS from Ron Gardenhire about there being no mental block when these two teams match up. Gardy has posted a far worse record against the Yankees than any other squad and it's because there IS a mental block and it starts with him. Gardy manages scared and his team plays scared when the Yankees come to town. When you hear Gardy whining about how one mistake against the Yankees can cost you the game, you know he is afraid of the mighty Bronx Bombers. It is no coincidence that his team played not to lose instead of playing to win. Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano were afraid to throw strikes. Gardy tried to be a magician and mix up the lineup on Wednesday and Thursday. Why the hell would you bat Jason Kubel behind Michael Cuddyer against a righty?! Stop over analyzing and go with the lineup that's been successful for most of the year. You don't have to split up the lefties agains a righty. Plus, Mauer and Morneau hit lefties well. Also, tell me what other manager in the game would bat Matt Tolbert second? The answer is nobody. You have to place some blame on the players who were on the field, but a team usually takes on the attitude of its manager and said manager was scared of the big boys from the Bronx. Fifth straight series win...DEAD! Momentum from the Detroit series...DEAD!
-Cuddy in front of Kubel on Wednesday really disturbed me and it very easily could have cost us the game. Cuddy comes up in the 7th inning, bases loaded. A base hit gives us the lead. What does he do? Predictably, he strikes out, swinging at two pitches that bounced before the plate and looking like a hitter who shouldn't be in the majors. That's why you can't trust a pure guess hitter like Cuddyer to come through in the clutch. Yes, Cuddy is putting up some pretty solid numbers this year. However, when you dive deeper into the numbers you will realize that he is hitting under .230 with runners in scoring position and all of his home runs seem to come in non-clutch moments.
-This team needs a shot in the arm. We seem to be a pitcher or hitter away every year and this year is no exception. I know it's probably pointless to even mention because the Twins front office seems to be content with being mediocre in a terrible division year in and year out. Rarely, if ever, do they go full out for the World Series. Shannon Stewart is the only deadline difference maker the Twins have ever acquired in my lifetime. Do I expect anything this year? Nope. However, Bill Smith would do a lot for this fan base and for convincing Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan (pieces you need to hold on to) to stay here long term if he were to acquire a difference maker(s) at the trade deadline this year. The main need, in my opinion, has shifted from a bullpen arm to a second baseman, due to the emergence of Bob Keppel in the pen. Freddy Sanchez would be a perfect fit here. He is a former batting champ and plays solid defense. He solves two problems: the number two hitter in the lineup and the lack of production at the bottom of the order. Putting him in the two hole would allow Brendan Harris to move down to the eight spot. In addition, the anemic hitting Nick Punto would shift to his more natural utility position and the non-major league caliber Matt Tolbert (.178 avg) would be back in the minors where he belongs. Hitting Sanchez and Mauer 2-3 would be very nice. Two former batting champs right in front of Morneau, Kubel, Cuddy, and Crede. However, all this dreaming is probably a moot point because Bill Smith is afraid to make a trade after failing miserably with the Santana and Garza deals. My plea is for him to be bold and make a deal. I know the Twins don't like to part with part prospects, but the time to win is NOW. You have the best two players int the AL in Mauer and Morneau and the best closer in the game in Nathan. Plus, the AL Central sucks this year and is very winnable. But do you just want to win a bad division, or try to go all the way? I opt for the later.
-As I said, bullpen help isn't as critical as finding a second baseman who can hit and fill the two hole. However, names like Matt Capps and Jeremy Affeldt are still two guys I would target. It is naive to think that Keppel and R.A. Dickey, two guys that have bad career numbers, can continue the influential runs that they are on. It's possible they could, but the front office needs to assume the worse and add another power arm to this pen. The pen was clearly the reason that the Twins couldn't finish off the division last year and the FO refused to address the issue. Learn from the mistake and address it this year before it implodes again.
-I think there are three players on the team who wouldn't be picked up by another MLB team if the Twins cut them right now: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Brian Buscher. Gardy loves light hitting infielders though, so we have to keep them. Right?
-Speaking of Gardy, if we don't win the division this year, his job should be on the line. Call me crazy, but he has not gotten the job done over the past few years. Miss the playoffs this year and it would be the third year in a row with no post season in the corn fields. This team is clearly the most talented in the division and there are no excuses for not winning it this year. It seems that Gardy never gets any criticism from the Twins faithful. I think he is a mediocre field manager at best. I know he is great in the club house, but you have to get it done on the field. Since this team needs a spark right now, I would fire hitting coach Joe Vavra immediately. Just look at the swings players like Buscher, Punto, Tolbert, Young, Gomez, and Harris are taking right now. They are way to aggressive and look like they are trying to hit it out of the stadium every time. A lot of our hitters are undisciplined, they don't work counts, and can't hit with runners in scoring position. Plus, our offense is too inconsistent right now. It's unacceptable with the talent we have on the roster, so I would relieve Vavra of his duties.
-This White Sox series starting tonight is pivotal heading into the break. We need at least two of three. Luckily, we have Blacky going tonight, so we should win this one. Grab one of the next two and you're fine. The Sox have won two of three both times in Chicago, so we need to return the favor. They don't play well at the Dome, but we can't count on that with the hot stretch they're on now. The key to the series: starting pitching. Twins starters had an ERA over 6.00 in the Yankees series. Get in front early, get the starters to go 6 or 7 solid innings and you're in good shape. Gotta take care of business against the Dirty Hated South Siders. Time for Mauer and Morneau to shine. Vibing a Crede bomb against his old squad. Suck the White Fox!!!
-My prediction date for the Favre signing is July 16 (next Thursday). Single game tickets go on sale on the 20th, so you get the weekend buz right before then. I am extremely pumped up for it to happen. I want a Super Bowl so badly and Favre gives my favorite squad the best chance at their first Lombardi trophy. Can't wait to go to training camp!
-Chad Ochocinco is absolutely insane. Tweeting from the sidelines?! You have got to be kidding me. Players get paid millions of dollars to focus 100% on a football game for three hours once a week. Stop being stupid, Ocho. Also, don't mess with comish Roger Goddell because this guy doesn't tolerate BS like this. Act like a grown man for once. I get more sick of this guy every day.
-Some NFL predictions for you: Randy Moss will re-emerge as the top receiver in football, the Cardinals won't make it back to the playoffs while the Seahawks will, the Cowboys will miss the playoffs again, and the Vikings will go 13-3 with a healthy Favre and beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship game in the Dome. It's Mission Miami!
-Kevin O'Neil has already picked up two solid recruits (one from the Class of 2010, one from 2011). This guy is quietly going about his business and is a very hard worker. He isn't letting the NCAA investigation get in his way. I am beginning to believe more and more in this guy. The real test, however, will be when he hits the court this year and tries to take a tournament caliber team to the Dance for the fourth straight year.
-All of this complaining about the cost of the Michael Jackson memorial is stupid. He is possibly the greatest entertainer of all time. Regardless of his strange behavior at times, he deserves a big tribute for his contributions to the music world and what he did for the African American community and the global community at large.
-The NBA is going to be extremely awesome this year. The Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic have all upgraded their already talented rosters. There's going to be a lot of good teams in both conferences this year and it will be one of the most fun years to watch in recent NBA history.
-Starting to think the Wolves should have traded down with the Knicks and taken DeRozan. That way, Rubio wouldn't be scared that another point guard would out play him. The odds would be more likely the Spainard would play here. Plus, DeRozan could be extremely good in a few years. We may regret not taking him, just like we should regret trading another USC guard named O.J.
-Breaking News: Joe Mauer to compete in home run derby on Monday! His high school coach will pitch to him. It might not be what the fans love to see, but Joe will hit almost every one of his bombs out to left. I wouldn't bet against him. I think this is awesome. For those who think it will ruin his swing, this isn't any ordinary player. It's Joe Mauer, aka Baby Jesus, aka God. Don't worry about it.
Have a great weekend everybody!
-Cuddy in front of Kubel on Wednesday really disturbed me and it very easily could have cost us the game. Cuddy comes up in the 7th inning, bases loaded. A base hit gives us the lead. What does he do? Predictably, he strikes out, swinging at two pitches that bounced before the plate and looking like a hitter who shouldn't be in the majors. That's why you can't trust a pure guess hitter like Cuddyer to come through in the clutch. Yes, Cuddy is putting up some pretty solid numbers this year. However, when you dive deeper into the numbers you will realize that he is hitting under .230 with runners in scoring position and all of his home runs seem to come in non-clutch moments.
-This team needs a shot in the arm. We seem to be a pitcher or hitter away every year and this year is no exception. I know it's probably pointless to even mention because the Twins front office seems to be content with being mediocre in a terrible division year in and year out. Rarely, if ever, do they go full out for the World Series. Shannon Stewart is the only deadline difference maker the Twins have ever acquired in my lifetime. Do I expect anything this year? Nope. However, Bill Smith would do a lot for this fan base and for convincing Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan (pieces you need to hold on to) to stay here long term if he were to acquire a difference maker(s) at the trade deadline this year. The main need, in my opinion, has shifted from a bullpen arm to a second baseman, due to the emergence of Bob Keppel in the pen. Freddy Sanchez would be a perfect fit here. He is a former batting champ and plays solid defense. He solves two problems: the number two hitter in the lineup and the lack of production at the bottom of the order. Putting him in the two hole would allow Brendan Harris to move down to the eight spot. In addition, the anemic hitting Nick Punto would shift to his more natural utility position and the non-major league caliber Matt Tolbert (.178 avg) would be back in the minors where he belongs. Hitting Sanchez and Mauer 2-3 would be very nice. Two former batting champs right in front of Morneau, Kubel, Cuddy, and Crede. However, all this dreaming is probably a moot point because Bill Smith is afraid to make a trade after failing miserably with the Santana and Garza deals. My plea is for him to be bold and make a deal. I know the Twins don't like to part with part prospects, but the time to win is NOW. You have the best two players int the AL in Mauer and Morneau and the best closer in the game in Nathan. Plus, the AL Central sucks this year and is very winnable. But do you just want to win a bad division, or try to go all the way? I opt for the later.
-As I said, bullpen help isn't as critical as finding a second baseman who can hit and fill the two hole. However, names like Matt Capps and Jeremy Affeldt are still two guys I would target. It is naive to think that Keppel and R.A. Dickey, two guys that have bad career numbers, can continue the influential runs that they are on. It's possible they could, but the front office needs to assume the worse and add another power arm to this pen. The pen was clearly the reason that the Twins couldn't finish off the division last year and the FO refused to address the issue. Learn from the mistake and address it this year before it implodes again.
-I think there are three players on the team who wouldn't be picked up by another MLB team if the Twins cut them right now: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Brian Buscher. Gardy loves light hitting infielders though, so we have to keep them. Right?
-Speaking of Gardy, if we don't win the division this year, his job should be on the line. Call me crazy, but he has not gotten the job done over the past few years. Miss the playoffs this year and it would be the third year in a row with no post season in the corn fields. This team is clearly the most talented in the division and there are no excuses for not winning it this year. It seems that Gardy never gets any criticism from the Twins faithful. I think he is a mediocre field manager at best. I know he is great in the club house, but you have to get it done on the field. Since this team needs a spark right now, I would fire hitting coach Joe Vavra immediately. Just look at the swings players like Buscher, Punto, Tolbert, Young, Gomez, and Harris are taking right now. They are way to aggressive and look like they are trying to hit it out of the stadium every time. A lot of our hitters are undisciplined, they don't work counts, and can't hit with runners in scoring position. Plus, our offense is too inconsistent right now. It's unacceptable with the talent we have on the roster, so I would relieve Vavra of his duties.
-This White Sox series starting tonight is pivotal heading into the break. We need at least two of three. Luckily, we have Blacky going tonight, so we should win this one. Grab one of the next two and you're fine. The Sox have won two of three both times in Chicago, so we need to return the favor. They don't play well at the Dome, but we can't count on that with the hot stretch they're on now. The key to the series: starting pitching. Twins starters had an ERA over 6.00 in the Yankees series. Get in front early, get the starters to go 6 or 7 solid innings and you're in good shape. Gotta take care of business against the Dirty Hated South Siders. Time for Mauer and Morneau to shine. Vibing a Crede bomb against his old squad. Suck the White Fox!!!
-My prediction date for the Favre signing is July 16 (next Thursday). Single game tickets go on sale on the 20th, so you get the weekend buz right before then. I am extremely pumped up for it to happen. I want a Super Bowl so badly and Favre gives my favorite squad the best chance at their first Lombardi trophy. Can't wait to go to training camp!
-Chad Ochocinco is absolutely insane. Tweeting from the sidelines?! You have got to be kidding me. Players get paid millions of dollars to focus 100% on a football game for three hours once a week. Stop being stupid, Ocho. Also, don't mess with comish Roger Goddell because this guy doesn't tolerate BS like this. Act like a grown man for once. I get more sick of this guy every day.
-Some NFL predictions for you: Randy Moss will re-emerge as the top receiver in football, the Cardinals won't make it back to the playoffs while the Seahawks will, the Cowboys will miss the playoffs again, and the Vikings will go 13-3 with a healthy Favre and beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship game in the Dome. It's Mission Miami!
-Kevin O'Neil has already picked up two solid recruits (one from the Class of 2010, one from 2011). This guy is quietly going about his business and is a very hard worker. He isn't letting the NCAA investigation get in his way. I am beginning to believe more and more in this guy. The real test, however, will be when he hits the court this year and tries to take a tournament caliber team to the Dance for the fourth straight year.
-All of this complaining about the cost of the Michael Jackson memorial is stupid. He is possibly the greatest entertainer of all time. Regardless of his strange behavior at times, he deserves a big tribute for his contributions to the music world and what he did for the African American community and the global community at large.
-The NBA is going to be extremely awesome this year. The Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic have all upgraded their already talented rosters. There's going to be a lot of good teams in both conferences this year and it will be one of the most fun years to watch in recent NBA history.
-Starting to think the Wolves should have traded down with the Knicks and taken DeRozan. That way, Rubio wouldn't be scared that another point guard would out play him. The odds would be more likely the Spainard would play here. Plus, DeRozan could be extremely good in a few years. We may regret not taking him, just like we should regret trading another USC guard named O.J.
-Breaking News: Joe Mauer to compete in home run derby on Monday! His high school coach will pitch to him. It might not be what the fans love to see, but Joe will hit almost every one of his bombs out to left. I wouldn't bet against him. I think this is awesome. For those who think it will ruin his swing, this isn't any ordinary player. It's Joe Mauer, aka Baby Jesus, aka God. Don't worry about it.
Have a great weekend everybody!
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Time for Revenge: Twins-Yankees
I'm getting very jacked up for the Twins-Yankees series that starts tonight at the Dome. It's time for some sweet revenge after the Yankees beat the Twins in four straight games back in May at new Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, three of the four games ending on walk offs.
The Twins are playing pretty good baseball right now. They have won four straight series and six out of the last seven. However, they have been very fortunate to avoid the aces of opposing teams. The Twins didn't have to face Carlos Zambrano, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Carpenter, Zach Grienke, or Justin Verlander. This week alone, the Twins have to face Fat C.C., Burnett, Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle. That is no easy task for any team. The Twins offense was inconsistent for much of June, only averaging about 4 runs per game compared to around 6 in May. However, June was the first winning month for the Twins because their starting pitching began performing better. Both the pitching and the hitting have to be at the top of their game this week when they face the top pitchers from the Yankees and White Sox.
The Twins have been dominating right handed pitching ever since Joe Mauer came back on May 1. The Yankees will put up Sabathia, Burnett, and recently called up Sergio Mitre against Baker, Perk, and recently called up Anthony Swarzak. I like the Twins in the Thursday matine matchup. The middle game is a toss up to me because both Burnett and Liriano are going well right now. I would give the Yankees the edge in the opener tonight with C.C. If the Twins can find a way to take the opener, a sweep is not out of the question. The key to beating C.C. tonight is this: Make his fat ass come off the mound and field his position. I would put Gomez in the lineup and have him, Span, and Punto bunting early and often. Tire Sabathia out a bit, maybe force some errors, and get under his skin.
The Twins bullpen is very key in this series as well. As the Twins witnessed in New York, the Yankees are as good as any team in the league at coming back in the late innings. Guerrier, Mijares, Nathan and Co. will need to be on their game. The Hammer is one of my favorite Twins and is virtually unhittable right now, so hopefully he can exact some revenge on his hometown team after blowing the opener in the Bronx back in May.
It's gut check time for the Twins this week right before the All-Star break. If they can continue to get good starting pitching, they have a good chance to go into the break in first place. Let's start the week by getting revenge on the Evil Empire. Very excited to see Baseball Immortality Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Co. play in the Dome for the last time. Let's play!
The Twins are playing pretty good baseball right now. They have won four straight series and six out of the last seven. However, they have been very fortunate to avoid the aces of opposing teams. The Twins didn't have to face Carlos Zambrano, Yovani Gallardo, Chris Carpenter, Zach Grienke, or Justin Verlander. This week alone, the Twins have to face Fat C.C., Burnett, Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle. That is no easy task for any team. The Twins offense was inconsistent for much of June, only averaging about 4 runs per game compared to around 6 in May. However, June was the first winning month for the Twins because their starting pitching began performing better. Both the pitching and the hitting have to be at the top of their game this week when they face the top pitchers from the Yankees and White Sox.
The Twins have been dominating right handed pitching ever since Joe Mauer came back on May 1. The Yankees will put up Sabathia, Burnett, and recently called up Sergio Mitre against Baker, Perk, and recently called up Anthony Swarzak. I like the Twins in the Thursday matine matchup. The middle game is a toss up to me because both Burnett and Liriano are going well right now. I would give the Yankees the edge in the opener tonight with C.C. If the Twins can find a way to take the opener, a sweep is not out of the question. The key to beating C.C. tonight is this: Make his fat ass come off the mound and field his position. I would put Gomez in the lineup and have him, Span, and Punto bunting early and often. Tire Sabathia out a bit, maybe force some errors, and get under his skin.
The Twins bullpen is very key in this series as well. As the Twins witnessed in New York, the Yankees are as good as any team in the league at coming back in the late innings. Guerrier, Mijares, Nathan and Co. will need to be on their game. The Hammer is one of my favorite Twins and is virtually unhittable right now, so hopefully he can exact some revenge on his hometown team after blowing the opener in the Bronx back in May.
It's gut check time for the Twins this week right before the All-Star break. If they can continue to get good starting pitching, they have a good chance to go into the break in first place. Let's start the week by getting revenge on the Evil Empire. Very excited to see Baseball Immortality Derek Jeter, A-Rod and Co. play in the Dome for the last time. Let's play!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Thursday Thoughts
It's been awhile since the last entry on this blog, but I am ready to go at it full steam again. Here are my thoughts on all the teams closest to my heart.
TWINS:
This team has been so hard to figure out for most of the year. Just when it seems like they are ready to take off, they shoot themselves in the foot or someone goes on the DL. The Twins were finally able to get two games over .500 with yesterday's 5-1 win in KC, capping off an impressive 6-3 road trip. They have been very good on the road lately, which hopefully puts to rest their early road struggles.
I was able to take in a couple games in Milwaukee and St. Louis this past week and fun times were had. The new Busch Stadium is now one of my favorites after seeing it for the first time. St. Louis is a great baseball city and the atmosphere inside and outside of that ballpark is terrific. The two things I liked the most about Busch were the skyline and the red color scheme. Very cool place to watch a game.
The four games I saw on the road (first two in each series) were a microcosm of the Twins season so far. They played great in the first games in Milwaukee and St. Louis (Liriano was a little shaky in Milwaukee), but they followed up those performances with lackluster ones the very next day. Nick Blackburn throwing the ball into left field in Milwaukee was diseased and the Twins looked helpless against some poor pitchers on Saturday in St. Louis. The Twins have to start stringing some wins together and sweeping poor teams instead of just taking two out of three. St. Louis was a very unimpressive team to me and we missed Carpenter, so we should have swept. We also missed Gallardo in Milwaukee and Grienke in KC, but still only came away with two out of three in both cases. Don't get me wrong, I will take a 6-3 road trip every time. However, that doesn't mean giving away games like they did in all three cities is acceptable. When your longest winning streak this year is four, you know you have to do a better job sustaining momentum.
I thought the Twins would take off after Joe Mauer came back on May 1, yet they have remained hovering around .500. What accounts for the lack of improvement in record since Mauer's arrival? You could point to a lot of things, but I believe more than anything it has been inconsistency in the starting pitching. This inconsistency was there before Mauer returned and it has remained there since. Nick Blackburn has been by far the most consistent starter, strining together eight consecutive quality starts. Kevin Slowey has gotten good run support and for the most part been pretty effective, leading the club with 10 wins. It's the other three starters that have been the problem. Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, and Glen Perkins have been very hit or miss so far.
However, the recent statistics seem to indicate they may be turning it around. Scott Baker was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in June and had strung together six consecutive quality starts before going only five innings in his last one. Francisco Liriano was 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in June and was terrific his last time out in St. Louis. Glen Perkins was 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in June in three starts and started July off on a good note yesterday in Kansas City. It is no surprise to me that June was the first winning month for the Twins. Success all starts with good starting pitching, and the Twins got it for most of this month. If Perkins, Liriano, and Baker can continue to improve like they did in June, good times are ahead for the Twins. Credit these pitchers and pitching coach Rick Anderson for getting them on track.
The bullpen is still an issue for this team. The Twins have already parted ways with Luis Ayala and Craig Breslow since the start of the season and sent a struggling Jesse Crain to Rochester. For the time being, they are going with a six man bullpen, which is one man less than normal. I am less concerned than most about their bullpen situation, but I still do have a few worries. I love their two pronged setup attack of Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares. Matty was extremely over worked last year and leads the AL in appearances so far this year, which is a cause for concern. However, the presence of Mijares lessens that concern for me. The fact that you can really use either guy in the eigth inning, or both, makes it less likely that one will get over worked. If the starter goes seven innings, Gardy has the luxury of playing the match ups with his two setup guys in the eighth to get it to The Hammer Mr. Nathan in the ninth. As for the middle and long relief, that has been the problem for the Twins so far. Ayala and Breslow were awful and Sean Henn has been pretty bad himself. Two guys, however, have stepped up for the Twins in this role. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has proven to be a key addition to the pen. In fact, I would argue the man has saved the pen this year. He has come in when a starter has a bad day and eaten up innings to avoid burning out the rest of the pen. Bobby Keppel, albeit in only two appearances, has looked very good so far. I love the hard sinker that he throws that dives out of the zone and his quick pace on the mound. With that being said, for the Twins to expect Dickey and Keppel to continue to dominate when they haven't throughout their careers would be naive. The manager wants more bullpen help and he needs it. I want the Twins to attempt to trade for either Jeremy Affeldt (Giants) or Matt Capps (Pirates), two guys on bad teams who could pitch in the late innings and take pressure off of Guerrier and Mijares.
The lineup has been inconsistent at times, but for the most part has been solid and fairly powerful. Now that the Twins finally have everyone healthy in the lineup, I think their lineup is the best and deepest in the division. One guy who has really stepped up this year has been Brenden Harris. He has played a very solid shortstop since taking over on a regular basis as the starter and has done a good job getting on base in front of Joe Mauer in the two hole, which is crucial. Harris also did a great job leading off when Denard Span was on the DL. This lineup has been unexpectedly powerful this year. When your 3-7 guys are Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede, you are in pretty darn good shape. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez have also started to heat up a little bit and Nick Punto has been swinging the bat better as well. I don't think hitting will be a problem for the Twins in the second half.
So, after that long analysis, where does that leave us? I think the signs point to a strong push by the Twins for the division title. I believe that when healthy, as they finally are, the Twins are the best team in the division. It will likely come down to Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago. The Tigers have the best starting pitching, the White Sox have the best bullpen, and the Twins have the best lineup and defense. So, what gives Minnesota the edge? Depth in both the starting pitching and the lineup, along with the best closer in the game. The Tigers have the most talented staff with Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and Rick Porcello. However, the Twins have better four and five starters, which is critical to winning division titles. The Twins also have a lineup led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, two of the top five players in the AL. They have depth up and down the lineup. The White Sox bullpen as a whole is better than the Twins bullpen, however, we have the better closer in Joe Nathan. The formula for the Twins in the past has been getting solid starting pitching and just enough hitting to win. This year, their lineup has picked up some of the slack as well. Minnesota is the most balanced team in the division, which is why they will be the champions.
By the way, the acquisition of 3B Joe Crede has been absolutely huge for this squad. Crede has become my favorite player on the team. He plays gold glove caliber defense, takes good at bats, hits bombs, and goes about his business in a very professional way. I love the guy and never get tired of shouting CREDE......YEEEEEEeeeeeeeeSSSSSSSS!!!!!!! Great signing by Bill Smith to solidify the hot corner.
This home stand coming up is a huge one for the Twins, as they face Detroit, New York, and Chicago. Let's hope they can go into the All-Star break on a roll and continue it in the second half, when the fun really begins. Let's play!
WOLVES:
I am in the minority, but I love what new GM David Kahn has done so far. Giving McHale the ax was a long overdue move and a good one, just from a PR perspective alone and getting fans back to Target Center. The Wolves are so fortunate to have had Ricky Rubio fall into their laps at number 5. If he does play here this year or next, he could turn around the franchise. Rubio is an unbelievable passer and floor general. The Wolves need to call Rubio's bluff. If he says he is playing in Spain, tell him that's fine but we still control his rights when he returns. Under no circumstances should the Wolves trade Rubio until at least next year at this time. If they trade him and he succeeds tremendously wherever he goes, it could be the death of the Timberwolves. Hold onto him and be patient. Kahn is playing it perfectly so far. I hope Rubio plays here this year, but if not, it will be nice to find out what Jonny Flynn can do as the starting point guard. Plus, you'll probably end up with a better draft pick next year. The dilemma is that Rubio's agent is likely fearful of Flynn outshining his client if they do play together. One may have to go. It's a tough situation and I'm glad it's not my job to figure it out. I really did want Tyreke Evans on this squad, but I am happy how it turned out. We got two good players.
The Wolves were really thrown into a corner when James Harden and Evans were off the board at number five. Most people thought at least one would be available for the Wolves to nab. As it turned out, both were gone and the Wolves had to improvise. For those that criticize what Kahn decided to do, I ask you to propose a better solution than the one he came up with. Most would say we should have taken Steph Curry over Flynn. However, he is still a point guard and we would have the same dilemma we have now! Kahn and his people loved Flynn and I do to. He is a dynamic scorer, he's tough, strong, and has a great personality. Plus, he is much better on defense than Curry. Apparently, Flynn held his own against the much taller Evans in the Wolves workout. I love the Flynn pick. Obviously, passing up Rubio was not an option. Kahn would have been the laughing stock of basketball, despite the dicey situation we are in now with Ricky. Another option would have been to select my USC boy DeMar DeRozan with the number six pick. I would have been cool with that because I think the guy will be a star eventually on both sides of the ball in the NBA. However, shooting is his weakness and the last thing the Wolves need is a weak shooting 2 guard. I do think DeMar will improve his shooting, however, and the Wolves might eventually regret passing on him. I do understand and agree with what they did though. Take the best two players and worry about it later. Kahn housed the best two PGs in the draft. Do I think they can play together? Probably not, but we can work it out later. I also love the Wayne Ellington pick at 28. I think it's a big steal. The guy can shoot and play hard nosed defense. Wolves fans will like him.
I hate to look back on past history, but I can't help but think that this franchise delayed its development by at least a year when they traded O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love. While Love is much better than I thought he'd be, he plays the same position as Al Jefferson. I do not think that Love and Jefferson can play together on a championship caliber team. I think Love will eventually either be the sixth man or be traded. So, you used your number three pick to get a bench player. Does that make any sense? No! When you're rebuilding, you try to fill holes. Mayo would have filled the scoring 2 guard hole. Rubio/Flynn fill the point guard hole. Next year, the Wolves will likely fill the center hole because the 2010 draft is heavy on big men. So, by trading Mayo, you now have another hole to fill in either 2010 free agency or the 2011 draft. Plus, who knows if you'll be able to get a player of Mayo's caliber, who will average 20 ppg throughout his career. The Wolves primary needs now are a center and a scoring 2 guard. They had the scoring 2 guard in Mayo, but traded him for a guy who plays the same position as their best player. Smart move. As someone who wants the Wolves to be good again as quickly as possible, I can't help but look back on that trade as a mistake. Thank you, Mr. McHale.
VIKINGS:
Brett Favre's arrival looks to be inevitable and I can't wait for his signing to become official. No intelligent football fan can honestly say the Vikings shouldn't make this move, considering who they have a quarterback now. A healthy Favre fills the only true hole on this team and puts them squarely into the category of a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC. For those that say this doesn't put the Vikings into that category, I would ask you why. If healthy, this offense will be unstoppable. Adrian Peterson might be the biggest benefactor of Brett's arrival because opposing defenses will have to respect the pass with Favre under center. AD will run wild and Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Bobby Wade, and Sidney Rice will finally have a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing to them. We aren't pursuing Favre to win in the regular season. We've already done that without him last year. We are getting him to lead us to wins in the postseason and hopefully, one big win in Miami on Super Bowl Sunday. The Packers-Vikings games this year, especially the one in Lambeau, will be must see TV. For those Packers fans that say we can have Favre, we will gladly take our chances with Football Immortality over Aaron Rodgers. It's Mission Miami and nothing else for the Purple the moment Favre arrives. Should be a fun ride.
USC BASKETBALL:
I am still very sad that Tim Floyd is no longer the coach of this team. What an incredible job he did in his four years at USC bringing the program to national prominence. He led the Trojans to three straight NCAA Tournament appearances and three straight 20 win seasons for the first time in school history. Timothy, as I like to call him, poured his heart out for his team and the University and should be commended for it. I am disgusted with how AD Mike Garrett threw Floyd under the bus and refused to publicly support him during trying times. The lack of commitment to basketball in the athletic department is astounding and it all starts with Garrett. With the new Galen Center, this program was on the rise. However, you need strong commitment from your AD and USC didn't have it. Garrett didn't publicly say anything positive about Floyd when he was considering leaving for Arizona (In fact, he basically invided Tim to leave) and didn't support Floyd when the very questionable allegations came out about him. Garrett also put a ton of restrictions on who Floyd could recruit. Do you think he's ever done that with Pete Carroll? Tim Floyd, the best coach in USC Basketball history, deserved better.
Despite the national perception, USC still has some talented players to work with this year. I hated the Kevin O'Neil hire at first, but I am coming around to it and am willing to give him a shot. The man is a good friend of Floyd's and like Tim, is a strong defensive coach. It also helps from a recruiting and X's and O's standpoint that all of Floyd's assistants are staying put. I think that the Trojans can compete for a spot in the NCAA Tournament this year with the talent they have on their roster, especially when you consider how weak the Pac-10 will be. The Trojans will likely start Marcus Simmons, Dwight Lewis, Marcus Johnson, Leonard Washington, and Alex Stepheson. Donte Smith, Nikola Vucevic, Kasey Cunningham, Evan Smith, and Guy Landry will be the primary bench players. That is not a bad group of guys at all. The Trojans will be very deep and strong in the frontcourt with Washington, Stepheson, Vucevic, and Cunningham. They will struggle shooting from outside, as they did last year, but will play great defense and get high precentage shots in the lane. I am glad O'Neil said he expects this team in the tournament because they should be with the talent they have on the roster. I am very excited to see Alex Stepheson, the transfer from UNC, showcase his game. Guy Landry is a recruit that is not being talked about, but is rated an 88 by ESPN and should play solid minutes for the Trojans. Kevin O'Neil certainly has some talent to work with thanks to his predecesor Tim Floyd. The real question will be if O'Neil can attract the same quality of talent Floyd was able to attract to USC.
USC FOOTBALL:
Fall camp starts August 8 and I am getting more and more excited for the season and this team. Aaron Corp needs to be solid if he wants to keep freshman Matt Barkley from taking his QB job. I am excited to watch the defense again this year, especially because they have to replace so many guys. The linebackers of Michael Morgan, Malcolm Smith, and Chris Gallipo should be extremely fast and maybe as good as last year's star studed group. Taylor Mays is the best safety in the country and I can't wait to watch him destroy people in his senior year. The offense returns everyone except WR Patrick Turner. Look for the offense to be extremely good with first year guy Jeremy Bates calling the plays. I am glad this team won't start the year at number one. It's a little less pressure and I can't wait for them to prove people wrong this year. They are hungry for a title and have all the tools to do it. They will have to be road warriers, however, to get it done. Their toughest games will be at Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Cal. If they make it through that stretch unbeaten, they will be in the BCS Championship game because the home schedule is a cake walk this year.
TWINS:
This team has been so hard to figure out for most of the year. Just when it seems like they are ready to take off, they shoot themselves in the foot or someone goes on the DL. The Twins were finally able to get two games over .500 with yesterday's 5-1 win in KC, capping off an impressive 6-3 road trip. They have been very good on the road lately, which hopefully puts to rest their early road struggles.
I was able to take in a couple games in Milwaukee and St. Louis this past week and fun times were had. The new Busch Stadium is now one of my favorites after seeing it for the first time. St. Louis is a great baseball city and the atmosphere inside and outside of that ballpark is terrific. The two things I liked the most about Busch were the skyline and the red color scheme. Very cool place to watch a game.
The four games I saw on the road (first two in each series) were a microcosm of the Twins season so far. They played great in the first games in Milwaukee and St. Louis (Liriano was a little shaky in Milwaukee), but they followed up those performances with lackluster ones the very next day. Nick Blackburn throwing the ball into left field in Milwaukee was diseased and the Twins looked helpless against some poor pitchers on Saturday in St. Louis. The Twins have to start stringing some wins together and sweeping poor teams instead of just taking two out of three. St. Louis was a very unimpressive team to me and we missed Carpenter, so we should have swept. We also missed Gallardo in Milwaukee and Grienke in KC, but still only came away with two out of three in both cases. Don't get me wrong, I will take a 6-3 road trip every time. However, that doesn't mean giving away games like they did in all three cities is acceptable. When your longest winning streak this year is four, you know you have to do a better job sustaining momentum.
I thought the Twins would take off after Joe Mauer came back on May 1, yet they have remained hovering around .500. What accounts for the lack of improvement in record since Mauer's arrival? You could point to a lot of things, but I believe more than anything it has been inconsistency in the starting pitching. This inconsistency was there before Mauer returned and it has remained there since. Nick Blackburn has been by far the most consistent starter, strining together eight consecutive quality starts. Kevin Slowey has gotten good run support and for the most part been pretty effective, leading the club with 10 wins. It's the other three starters that have been the problem. Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, and Glen Perkins have been very hit or miss so far.
However, the recent statistics seem to indicate they may be turning it around. Scott Baker was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in June and had strung together six consecutive quality starts before going only five innings in his last one. Francisco Liriano was 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in June and was terrific his last time out in St. Louis. Glen Perkins was 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in June in three starts and started July off on a good note yesterday in Kansas City. It is no surprise to me that June was the first winning month for the Twins. Success all starts with good starting pitching, and the Twins got it for most of this month. If Perkins, Liriano, and Baker can continue to improve like they did in June, good times are ahead for the Twins. Credit these pitchers and pitching coach Rick Anderson for getting them on track.
The bullpen is still an issue for this team. The Twins have already parted ways with Luis Ayala and Craig Breslow since the start of the season and sent a struggling Jesse Crain to Rochester. For the time being, they are going with a six man bullpen, which is one man less than normal. I am less concerned than most about their bullpen situation, but I still do have a few worries. I love their two pronged setup attack of Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares. Matty was extremely over worked last year and leads the AL in appearances so far this year, which is a cause for concern. However, the presence of Mijares lessens that concern for me. The fact that you can really use either guy in the eigth inning, or both, makes it less likely that one will get over worked. If the starter goes seven innings, Gardy has the luxury of playing the match ups with his two setup guys in the eighth to get it to The Hammer Mr. Nathan in the ninth. As for the middle and long relief, that has been the problem for the Twins so far. Ayala and Breslow were awful and Sean Henn has been pretty bad himself. Two guys, however, have stepped up for the Twins in this role. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has proven to be a key addition to the pen. In fact, I would argue the man has saved the pen this year. He has come in when a starter has a bad day and eaten up innings to avoid burning out the rest of the pen. Bobby Keppel, albeit in only two appearances, has looked very good so far. I love the hard sinker that he throws that dives out of the zone and his quick pace on the mound. With that being said, for the Twins to expect Dickey and Keppel to continue to dominate when they haven't throughout their careers would be naive. The manager wants more bullpen help and he needs it. I want the Twins to attempt to trade for either Jeremy Affeldt (Giants) or Matt Capps (Pirates), two guys on bad teams who could pitch in the late innings and take pressure off of Guerrier and Mijares.
The lineup has been inconsistent at times, but for the most part has been solid and fairly powerful. Now that the Twins finally have everyone healthy in the lineup, I think their lineup is the best and deepest in the division. One guy who has really stepped up this year has been Brenden Harris. He has played a very solid shortstop since taking over on a regular basis as the starter and has done a good job getting on base in front of Joe Mauer in the two hole, which is crucial. Harris also did a great job leading off when Denard Span was on the DL. This lineup has been unexpectedly powerful this year. When your 3-7 guys are Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede, you are in pretty darn good shape. Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez have also started to heat up a little bit and Nick Punto has been swinging the bat better as well. I don't think hitting will be a problem for the Twins in the second half.
So, after that long analysis, where does that leave us? I think the signs point to a strong push by the Twins for the division title. I believe that when healthy, as they finally are, the Twins are the best team in the division. It will likely come down to Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago. The Tigers have the best starting pitching, the White Sox have the best bullpen, and the Twins have the best lineup and defense. So, what gives Minnesota the edge? Depth in both the starting pitching and the lineup, along with the best closer in the game. The Tigers have the most talented staff with Verlander, Edwin Jackson, and Rick Porcello. However, the Twins have better four and five starters, which is critical to winning division titles. The Twins also have a lineup led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, two of the top five players in the AL. They have depth up and down the lineup. The White Sox bullpen as a whole is better than the Twins bullpen, however, we have the better closer in Joe Nathan. The formula for the Twins in the past has been getting solid starting pitching and just enough hitting to win. This year, their lineup has picked up some of the slack as well. Minnesota is the most balanced team in the division, which is why they will be the champions.
By the way, the acquisition of 3B Joe Crede has been absolutely huge for this squad. Crede has become my favorite player on the team. He plays gold glove caliber defense, takes good at bats, hits bombs, and goes about his business in a very professional way. I love the guy and never get tired of shouting CREDE......YEEEEEEeeeeeeeeSSSSSSSS!!!!!!! Great signing by Bill Smith to solidify the hot corner.
This home stand coming up is a huge one for the Twins, as they face Detroit, New York, and Chicago. Let's hope they can go into the All-Star break on a roll and continue it in the second half, when the fun really begins. Let's play!
WOLVES:
I am in the minority, but I love what new GM David Kahn has done so far. Giving McHale the ax was a long overdue move and a good one, just from a PR perspective alone and getting fans back to Target Center. The Wolves are so fortunate to have had Ricky Rubio fall into their laps at number 5. If he does play here this year or next, he could turn around the franchise. Rubio is an unbelievable passer and floor general. The Wolves need to call Rubio's bluff. If he says he is playing in Spain, tell him that's fine but we still control his rights when he returns. Under no circumstances should the Wolves trade Rubio until at least next year at this time. If they trade him and he succeeds tremendously wherever he goes, it could be the death of the Timberwolves. Hold onto him and be patient. Kahn is playing it perfectly so far. I hope Rubio plays here this year, but if not, it will be nice to find out what Jonny Flynn can do as the starting point guard. Plus, you'll probably end up with a better draft pick next year. The dilemma is that Rubio's agent is likely fearful of Flynn outshining his client if they do play together. One may have to go. It's a tough situation and I'm glad it's not my job to figure it out. I really did want Tyreke Evans on this squad, but I am happy how it turned out. We got two good players.
The Wolves were really thrown into a corner when James Harden and Evans were off the board at number five. Most people thought at least one would be available for the Wolves to nab. As it turned out, both were gone and the Wolves had to improvise. For those that criticize what Kahn decided to do, I ask you to propose a better solution than the one he came up with. Most would say we should have taken Steph Curry over Flynn. However, he is still a point guard and we would have the same dilemma we have now! Kahn and his people loved Flynn and I do to. He is a dynamic scorer, he's tough, strong, and has a great personality. Plus, he is much better on defense than Curry. Apparently, Flynn held his own against the much taller Evans in the Wolves workout. I love the Flynn pick. Obviously, passing up Rubio was not an option. Kahn would have been the laughing stock of basketball, despite the dicey situation we are in now with Ricky. Another option would have been to select my USC boy DeMar DeRozan with the number six pick. I would have been cool with that because I think the guy will be a star eventually on both sides of the ball in the NBA. However, shooting is his weakness and the last thing the Wolves need is a weak shooting 2 guard. I do think DeMar will improve his shooting, however, and the Wolves might eventually regret passing on him. I do understand and agree with what they did though. Take the best two players and worry about it later. Kahn housed the best two PGs in the draft. Do I think they can play together? Probably not, but we can work it out later. I also love the Wayne Ellington pick at 28. I think it's a big steal. The guy can shoot and play hard nosed defense. Wolves fans will like him.
I hate to look back on past history, but I can't help but think that this franchise delayed its development by at least a year when they traded O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love. While Love is much better than I thought he'd be, he plays the same position as Al Jefferson. I do not think that Love and Jefferson can play together on a championship caliber team. I think Love will eventually either be the sixth man or be traded. So, you used your number three pick to get a bench player. Does that make any sense? No! When you're rebuilding, you try to fill holes. Mayo would have filled the scoring 2 guard hole. Rubio/Flynn fill the point guard hole. Next year, the Wolves will likely fill the center hole because the 2010 draft is heavy on big men. So, by trading Mayo, you now have another hole to fill in either 2010 free agency or the 2011 draft. Plus, who knows if you'll be able to get a player of Mayo's caliber, who will average 20 ppg throughout his career. The Wolves primary needs now are a center and a scoring 2 guard. They had the scoring 2 guard in Mayo, but traded him for a guy who plays the same position as their best player. Smart move. As someone who wants the Wolves to be good again as quickly as possible, I can't help but look back on that trade as a mistake. Thank you, Mr. McHale.
VIKINGS:
Brett Favre's arrival looks to be inevitable and I can't wait for his signing to become official. No intelligent football fan can honestly say the Vikings shouldn't make this move, considering who they have a quarterback now. A healthy Favre fills the only true hole on this team and puts them squarely into the category of a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC. For those that say this doesn't put the Vikings into that category, I would ask you why. If healthy, this offense will be unstoppable. Adrian Peterson might be the biggest benefactor of Brett's arrival because opposing defenses will have to respect the pass with Favre under center. AD will run wild and Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, Bobby Wade, and Sidney Rice will finally have a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing to them. We aren't pursuing Favre to win in the regular season. We've already done that without him last year. We are getting him to lead us to wins in the postseason and hopefully, one big win in Miami on Super Bowl Sunday. The Packers-Vikings games this year, especially the one in Lambeau, will be must see TV. For those Packers fans that say we can have Favre, we will gladly take our chances with Football Immortality over Aaron Rodgers. It's Mission Miami and nothing else for the Purple the moment Favre arrives. Should be a fun ride.
USC BASKETBALL:
I am still very sad that Tim Floyd is no longer the coach of this team. What an incredible job he did in his four years at USC bringing the program to national prominence. He led the Trojans to three straight NCAA Tournament appearances and three straight 20 win seasons for the first time in school history. Timothy, as I like to call him, poured his heart out for his team and the University and should be commended for it. I am disgusted with how AD Mike Garrett threw Floyd under the bus and refused to publicly support him during trying times. The lack of commitment to basketball in the athletic department is astounding and it all starts with Garrett. With the new Galen Center, this program was on the rise. However, you need strong commitment from your AD and USC didn't have it. Garrett didn't publicly say anything positive about Floyd when he was considering leaving for Arizona (In fact, he basically invided Tim to leave) and didn't support Floyd when the very questionable allegations came out about him. Garrett also put a ton of restrictions on who Floyd could recruit. Do you think he's ever done that with Pete Carroll? Tim Floyd, the best coach in USC Basketball history, deserved better.
Despite the national perception, USC still has some talented players to work with this year. I hated the Kevin O'Neil hire at first, but I am coming around to it and am willing to give him a shot. The man is a good friend of Floyd's and like Tim, is a strong defensive coach. It also helps from a recruiting and X's and O's standpoint that all of Floyd's assistants are staying put. I think that the Trojans can compete for a spot in the NCAA Tournament this year with the talent they have on their roster, especially when you consider how weak the Pac-10 will be. The Trojans will likely start Marcus Simmons, Dwight Lewis, Marcus Johnson, Leonard Washington, and Alex Stepheson. Donte Smith, Nikola Vucevic, Kasey Cunningham, Evan Smith, and Guy Landry will be the primary bench players. That is not a bad group of guys at all. The Trojans will be very deep and strong in the frontcourt with Washington, Stepheson, Vucevic, and Cunningham. They will struggle shooting from outside, as they did last year, but will play great defense and get high precentage shots in the lane. I am glad O'Neil said he expects this team in the tournament because they should be with the talent they have on the roster. I am very excited to see Alex Stepheson, the transfer from UNC, showcase his game. Guy Landry is a recruit that is not being talked about, but is rated an 88 by ESPN and should play solid minutes for the Trojans. Kevin O'Neil certainly has some talent to work with thanks to his predecesor Tim Floyd. The real question will be if O'Neil can attract the same quality of talent Floyd was able to attract to USC.
USC FOOTBALL:
Fall camp starts August 8 and I am getting more and more excited for the season and this team. Aaron Corp needs to be solid if he wants to keep freshman Matt Barkley from taking his QB job. I am excited to watch the defense again this year, especially because they have to replace so many guys. The linebackers of Michael Morgan, Malcolm Smith, and Chris Gallipo should be extremely fast and maybe as good as last year's star studed group. Taylor Mays is the best safety in the country and I can't wait to watch him destroy people in his senior year. The offense returns everyone except WR Patrick Turner. Look for the offense to be extremely good with first year guy Jeremy Bates calling the plays. I am glad this team won't start the year at number one. It's a little less pressure and I can't wait for them to prove people wrong this year. They are hungry for a title and have all the tools to do it. They will have to be road warriers, however, to get it done. Their toughest games will be at Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Cal. If they make it through that stretch unbeaten, they will be in the BCS Championship game because the home schedule is a cake walk this year.
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