I may actually get my pre-season World Series prediction right for once. I called the Yankees winning it before the season and I'm not going away from it now. I hope I'm wrong because I hate the Yanks, but I can't see the Phillies winning this series.
Starting Pitching
The two aces pretty much cancel each other out. Lee and Sabathia have both been phenomenal this post season. I'd favor Sabathia slightly though because he'll be pitching at home in two out of the three potential match ups. After the aces, the Yankees have the substantial advantage. It will be awesome to see Pedro pitch against the Yankees in the Bronx, but he is clearly over the hill. Cole Hamels has been shaky this post season at best. Burnett is inconsistent but can be nasty and Pettite is the playoffs vet.
Advantage: Yankees
Bullpen
The Yankees have Mariano Rivera and the Phillies have Brad Lidge. That speaks for itself. If that wasn't enough, the rest of the Yankees bullpen is better as well. Joba and Hughes can both go multiple innings, although Hughes has been shaky in the post season. The Yankees just have too many arms out there in addition to the best closer of all time.
Advantage: Yankees
Lineup
This is a big strength of both teams. Either side can pounce on you quickly if you make a couple mistakes. I like the patience of the Yankees lineup a little better. Jeter and Damon are a little better than Rollins and Victorino. Cano and Swisher are much better than Feliz and Ruiz. The middle of the lineups pretty much cancel each other out, with maybe a slight advantage to the Phillies. Ryan Howard and Jason Werth need to stay hot for the Phils to have any chance. Werth does mash left handed pitching for a .340 average and he gets to face two Yankee lefties. However, I still like the run that A-Rod is on better than anything the Phillies offer. He is killing the ball right now and playing with so much confidence. He is the difference for New York.
Advantage: Yankees
Defense
Both teams ranked in the top ten defensively this season. It's pretty much a wash.
Advantage: Even
Intangibles
You have to favor the Yankees here because they have home field advantage. They have yet to lose a home game yet this post season. They also have that Yankees mystique and seem to be on a mission this year. The Phillies won't be an easy beat, however, as they try to be the first NL team to repeat since the Big Red Machine in the 1970s. Still, the Yankees have too many advantages here.
Advantage: Yankees
Managing
Charlie Manuel has been here before and Joe Girardi hasn't. In addition, the Yankee skipper has over managed a couple of times this post season already, giving away outs, making too many pitching changes, and too many defensive replacements. I'll favor Manuel here because of his experience and because I don't think Girardi is a great field manager.
Advantage: Phillies
Final Analysis
The Yankees just have too much going for them right now. Looking at all of their advantages, the home field advantage, and the intangible factor, I have to stick with my pre-season pick.
Prediction: Yankees in six games
I hope I'm wrong.
Thanks for reading.
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