Minnesota Twins Mid-Season Report

It's time to analyze the performance of my favorite baseball team through the first half of the season. Below, I will briefly comment on every player, give my surprises and disappointments from the first half, and lay out what the Twins have to do in the second half in order to win the AL Central.

When evaluating the players, I included Runs Above Replacement Value (RAR) for the batters and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) along with the usual stats you see everyday. These two statistics are very indicative of how valuable a player is and how well a pitcher is actually pitching.

BATTERS

CATHERS

Joe Mauer (.373 avg, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 41.0 RAR)

There isn't much I can say about this guy that isn't already known. Even though he missed all of April, he didn't miss a beat when he returned on May 1. Mauer is the best player in the American League and the fact that he has added more power to his game makes him even more valuable. His home run rate has slown down since a torrid pace in May, however, he still is taking more chances in hitters counts. Mauer handles his pitching staff as well as anyone in baseball and basically shuts down the running game of opposing teams. There's nothing more I can ask of this guy. He leads the Twins in RAR by far.

Mike Redmond (.236 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1.2 RAR)

Luckily, Red Dog hasn't had to play much since Mauer's return. He is valuable to this team because of his club house presence, but we can't expect much from him on the field anymore. I think that Morales should take over as the backup, but I understand the committment to Redmond. This will probably be his last season in Minnesota.

Jose Morales (.343 avg, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7.0 RAR)

This kid has done everything the Twins have asked of him this season. He hit well when filling in for Mauer and has been up and down between Minnesota and Rochester three times. He could be a key pinch hitter later in the season.

INFIELDERS

Justin Morneau (.311 avg, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 29.8 RAR)

Just another great year for the best first baseman in the American League. Morneau has done it all and really been the anchor of the Twins lineup in the clean up hole. He carried the Twins offense when Mauer was out and continues to be the biggest power threat on the team. One thing I would like to see him improve is his patience. Sometimes, he gets too anxious and tries to do too much. When he is selective at the plate, he is as dangerous a hitter as anyone in baseball. I also want his consistency to improve. He can get streaky at times. The key for him will be being productive in September, the month where he fell off dramatically and lost the MVP last season.

Nick Punto (.201 avg, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 0.1 RAR)

Punto has been a huge disappointment again this year. Surprise, surprise. It seems that every time we give this guy an everyday job, he fails. When we use him in his role he should be used in (utility guy), he does a good job. Punto might see less time in the second half, due to the recent call up of Alexi Casilla. Obviously, Punto's defense is what keeps his RAR hovering above zero, but his lackluster offense make him un-worthy of an everyday job. He is the fifth highest paid Twins at $4.5 million. What were the Twins thinking when they offered him that deal?!

Brendan Harris (.275 avg, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 6.8 RAR)

What a pleasant surprise Harris has been since he stepped into the everyday job at shortstop. Harris has batted everywhere in the lineup and proven his versatility in the field as well. I don't love his range at short, but he has made some spectacular plays for the Twins. This guy won't blow you away, but he has a decent bat with a little pop.

Joe Crede (.234 avg, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 21.1 RAR)

As regular readers know, this guy is my favorite player on the Twins. He has played gold glove caliber defense at third and provided some nice pop in the lineup. Plus, he gives the Twins a veteran presence and is a consumate professional. I love the way Crede quietly goes about his business. He already has two walk offs, but the best part of his game is his outstanding defense. He is a vacuum at third base and has finally held down that position for Minnesota. His 21.1 RAR is third on the team. His career numbers indicate his average should slightly improve in the second half as well. Crede's health was the major concern headed into the season, but he has stayed on the field and is 6th on the team in at bats.

Matt Tolbert (.178 avg, 1 HR, 12 RBI, -9.3 RAR)

What a disaster Tolbert has been. He finally got the demotion he had been deserving for months with the call up of Alexi Casilla. My god has he been bad. Maybe Joe Vavra deserves the blame, but it looks like Tolbert tries to hit the ball out of the park every time he swings. He hits way to many pop ups because of his upper cut swing. Tolbert dipping and turning over of his wrists causes this problem and it hasn't improved. This guy had every chance to earn a starting job considering the ineptitude of Nick Punto, yet he failed to step up. Please keep him in the minors.

Brian Buscher (.210 avg, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 0.9 RAR)

Another bad player on this team. Thankfully, Joe Crede's health has kept Buscher off the field for the most part. I just fail to see what this guy does that keeps him on the squad. He can't move in the field and he is barely over the Mendoza Line at the plate. The one thing Buscher does well is take good at bats. He sees a lot of pitches, so I guess he can at least work pitchers before he strikes out.

Alexi Casilla (.180 avg, 0 HR, 5 RBI, -10.9 RAR)

Casilla was absolutely dreadful during his two stints with the Twins this year. Horrible fielding and horrible hitting. The Twins were expecting him to hold down second base after a terrific second half last year, however, all he has done is earn two demotions to Rochester. However, despite all of that, Casilla could be one of the keys for the Twins in the second half. If, as expected, they can't work out a deal for Pittsburgh's Freddy Sanchez, Casilla must step up and perform. His biggest contribution could be holding down the number two spot in the batting order, where players other than Joe Mauer have combined to hit .190 this year. It is pivotal for Casilla and Denard Span to get on in front of Mauer, Morneau, etc. Let's hope the Twins can catch lightning in a bottle again. Casilla has been doing well in the minors, hitting over .340, but it's a big gamble to assume he'll succeed up in the majors.

OUTFIELDERS

Denard Span (.292 avg, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 18.7 RAR)

Span is one of the better lead off hitters in the game. There isn't much to complain about here. Span is extremely patient, draws walks, gets on base, and is a threat on the bases with his speed. He is one of the more consistent players on the Twins as well. Span's defense also deserves praise. He covers a ton of ground and can play any of the three outfield positions. His RAR is fourth on the team.

Michael Cuddyer (.273 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 14.0 RAR)

Regular readers know that Cuddy is one of my least favorite players on the team. However, even I will admit that he has had a solid season thus far. His power has returned and he has hit for a decent average as well. There's no question that the Twins are better with a healthy Cuddyer than without him. Some things he does continue to torment me, though. Some of Cuddyer's at bats make him look like he shouldn't be in the majors. He is a guess hitter, which is why some of his swings are so ugly. Cuddy needs to be more patient at the plate and stop swinging at sliders and curves low and away. Cuddyer has also made some base running mistakes that go directly against the "smart baseball" the Twins preach. His defense in right field is very overrated by Twins fans. He has a good arm, but he has horrible range and has trouble going back on balls. I know I am hyper-critical of the man we call Cuddy, but he has definitely exceeded my expectations his year. The key for him is staying on the field in the second half.

Jason Kubel (.311 avg, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 14.7 RAR)

What a pleasant surprise this guy has been in holding down the DH for the Twins. Kubel continues to show why he was so highly touted as he moved through the minor leagues. Kubs has provided excellent protection for Justin Morneau and continued to provide clutch hits for this squad. His power presence has been crucial. He does need to improve his hitting against lefties. Kubel is probably the most underrated player on the roster.

Delmon Young (.266 avg, 3 HR, 25 RBI, -13.8 RAR)

I have always preached patience with Delmon, but he has once again failed to live up to expectations. The power we all thought we were getting upon his arrival has been non existent. Of his 44 hits, only 9 have been for extra bases. He's been an extremely frustrating player for Twins fans to watch over the past two years, primarily because of how highly touted he was when he came here in the Matt Garza deal. One thing I will say, however, is that Young and Carlos Gomez have not received regular playing time. The fact that the Twins decided to keep both before the season has helped in some respects, but also probably has both players constantly putting too much preasure on themselves to stay in the lineup. Young, at least, has been listening more to the coaches this year and has shown steady improvement over the last month. His RAR ranks last on the team and in the majors.

Carlos Gomez (.235 avg, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 1.2 RAR)

Gomez, like Young, has been hurt by a lack of every day playing time. While he is still very undisciplined at the plate, Gomez has drawn more walks and struck out far less than last year. I still believe Go Go can be a very good player down the road and we must be patient with him. I do like what he brings to the table as a fourth outfielder. He can pinch run and be a defensive replacement late in games. When he is in there, Gomez must bunt more than he has so far this year. His lack of bunting is pretty much singlehandedly responsible for his drop off in batting average. Go Go's defense deserves mention here. He is probably the best defensive center fielder in baseball, which is why his RAR is still over zero.

PITCHERS

Nick Blackburn (8-4, 3.06 ERA, 29 BB, 54 K, 3.97 xFIP)

Blackburn has stepped up and been the ace of the staff during the first half of the season. He is a model of consistency and gives the Twins a chance to win every time out. I love how he works quickly, isn't afraid of pitching to contact, and goes deep into games. His sinker has been money. However, there is reason to assume that Blackburn's numbers will drop off a little bit in the second half. His high ground ball rate of 40% and his low strike out rate make it tough to sustain his stellar ERA, as his xFIP suggests. Regardless, this guy has proven to be a reliable starter for Minnesota.

Francisco Liriano (4-9, 5.47 ERA, 46 BB, 93K, 4.53 xFIP)

Liriano has been a major disappointment so far for the Twins. They expected him to be a front of the line starter, but he has failed to establish any consistency. Liriano is a major key in the second half for the Twins. While he isn't the same dominant pitcher he was in 2006, opposing hitters have said his slider still has good bite and his fastball still has good movement. The key for Frankie is locating his fastball. When he does that and doesn't over throw, he is solid. Liriano did have an ERA under 4.00 in June. One other key for him is having a significant speed difference between his fastball and his change up. When his fastball was 96 mph, an 84 mph change was acceptable. Now, however, since his fastball is only around 91 mph, his change must be slower as well. Something to keep an eye on.

Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42 ERA, 21 BB, 82 K, 4.41 xFIP)

Bake has been the other major disappointment in Minnesota's starting rotation. Like Liriano, the Twins expected Scott to be a front of the line starter. He started off dreadfully and has shown some improvement, but he must step up more if the Twins are to make the playoffs. Baker leaves too many balls up in the zone. In addition, I don't like his seemingly soft attitude. He usually shuts it down after 100 pitches and doesn't show the toughness you want to see out of aces, which is what Baker is supposed to be. It's time for him to start performing better.

Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86 ERA, 15 BB, 75K, 4.22 xFIP)

Slow Ride has been a winning machine for the Twins so far, but largely because of great run support. When he comes back from his wrist injury, Slowey has to be more consistent. He is a control machine and I like that, but he must be perfect with his location because he doesn't have terrific stuff. If he can mix up his pitches more, Slowey can be solid in the second half. I like how he goes up the ladder with his fastball for strikeouts, and would like to see him do so more. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him, but Slowey will always give the Twins a chance to win because of his pinpoint control.

Glen Perkins (4-5, 4.71 ERA, 16 BB, 36K, 3.96 xFIP)

Perk has been terrific when healthy this season. He went 8 innings in his first three starts and has been pretty good since coming off the DL in early June. The key for Perkins is staying out of big innings early. He usually improves as the game goes along. I love it when Perkins works inside on right handed hitters. That is when he's most effective. Considering he's only supposed to be a number five starter, I don't have much criticism of Perkins so far except for his lack of consistency.

R.A. Dickey (1-1, 3.25 ERA, 22BB, 38 K, 4.28 xFIP)

Dickey has been maybe the most pleasant surprise this season. The knuckleballer has virtually saved the Twins bullpen with his ability to pitch multiple innings and the change of pace he provides. However, I think he may be on the verge of implosion if Manager Ron Gardenhire continues to use him in roles other than long relief. His high walk total makes him un-suitable for close late game situations. Hitters are starting to get used to him. Gardy must keep him in long relief, nothing more.

Matt Guerrier (4-0, 2.41 ERA, 8 BB, 27 K, 4.14 xFIP)

Guerrier has enjoyed a good bounce back season, solidifying an eighth inning set up role. The key is not to over use him in the second half. The emergence of Jose Mijares has helped ease the workload for Matty G. His stuff isn't terrific, except for a nasty duece, but his great control allows him to be successful.

Joe Nathan (1-1, 1.31 ERA, 7 BB, 43 K, 23/25 saves, 1.93 xFIP)

The Hammer has been the best closer in baseball this season, in my opinion. This is the best I have ever seen him pitch. He has a huge arsenal of pitches that he uses. I feel incredibly confident that the game is virtually over when Nathan gets the ball. The decision the Twins made last off season to sign him to a long term deal was a terrific one.

Anthony Swarzak (2-3, 4.50 ERA, 11 BB, 18 K, 4.38 xFIP)

Swarzak has done a good job as a fill in starter for the Twins this season. He has a good moving fastball and a solid 12-6 curveball. Control is something that needs improvement, but expect this guy to contribute more this season and in the future.

Jose Mijares (0-1, 1.88 ERA, 14 BB, 25 K, 4.25 xFIP)

This guy has come so far since coming into spring training overweight and not making the team. While he sometimes struggles with control, Mijares has been a solid lefty Gardy can call on late in games. His high 4.25 xFIP is a bit concerning and is probably because he leaves too many balls up. However, he can get away with more mistakes than most because he has terrific stuff.

Jesse Crain (2-3, 8.15 ERA, 12 BB, 13 K, 5.84 xFIP)

Crain, along with Alexi Casilla, is right up there for biggest disappointment this season. I was completely wrong about this guy. His fastball is straight and he can't locate it and he over throws far too often. Hopefully, Jesse can get himself right at Rochester, but I wouldn't bank on it. The Twins hope he can contribute later this year, but that is only possible if he gets his head on his shoulders.

Bob Keppel (0-0, 0.73 ERA, 6 BB, 6K, 4.04 xFIP)

Keppel has come up from Rochester and been extremely good in his short time here. He features a 95 mph sinker that just dives out of the zone. Unlike former Twins Luis Ayala, he actually succeeds at getting ground balls with his sinker. Imagine that. His high xFIP is due to his bad K/BB ratio. Eventually, if he doesn't cut down on the walks, his ERA will rise exponentially. I have been waiting for Keppel to implode, but I have to admit that he has looked great so far. The more he can continue to succeed, he more time he will see in pivotal situations.

Brian Duensing (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 5 BB, 4 K, 6.15 xFIP)

I haven't seen enough of Duensing to make any hard conclusions, but he hasn't looked all that promising thus far. Too many walks and too many balls left up in the zone. He won't see much time in big spots, but he may ocassionally be called on to get a lefty out late in games.

Sean Henn (0-3, 7.15 ERA, 8 BB, 9 K, 6.15 xFIP)

This guy was a complete disaster when he was here and I don't want to see him pick up the ball for the Twins ever again. Does that make it clear what I think of Henn's abilities?


First Half Surprises:

-R.A. Dickey being a reliable long reliever. No one saw this coming when we signed him.

-Joe Crede staying healthy. I loved the signing, but wasn't completely confident he could stay on the field. He has done just that and solidified the hot corner.

-Nick Blackburn becoming a front of the rotation starter. I didn't think he had the stuff. He has been Mr. Consistency for the Twins in the first half.

-Bob Keppel coming up from Rochester and dominating in his first few apperaces. He has added valuable depth to the Twins pen.

-Brendan Harris becoming a decent every day player. Gardy certainly never saw this one coming. He always said Harris was only a good utility guy. The defense at short and solid bat have been a welcome surprise.

-Kevin Slowey winning 10 games. He hasn't been as good as that number suggests, but nonetheless it is surprising.

-Joe Mauer hitting 15 homeruns. Even the most loyal Mauer fans had given up that he would ever hit for power. Never underestimate Baby Jesus.

-Michael Cuddyer staying healthy for the first time since 2006.

-Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares holding down the eighth inning.

-Jason Kubel becoming a solid power hitting threat in the middle of the lineup.

-Jose Morales being a solid hitter.


First Half Disappointments:

-Alexi Casilla completely failing to hold down second base. His needs to perform in the second half.

-Jesse Crain being a huge bust and getting sent down.

-Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano failing to step up as top of the rotation guys.

-Nick Punto again failing to be a decent every day player (Maybe surprising to Gardy, certainly not to me)

-Delmon Young showing no noticeable improvement from last season.

-Carlos Gomez doing the same.

-Matt Tolbert hitting under .200


What do the Twins Need to do to win the AL Central?

We can talk about acquiring players like Freddy Sanchez and Matt Capps to improve this team, but regardless, this team's fate will be determined in large part by two players already on the roster: Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. As I've already mentioned, these two pitchers were expected to be the top two guys for the Twins at the front of the rotation. For the most part, both have failed. The possitive thing is that both have been trending in the right direction. I have no doubt that Baker can continue to improve, based on his second half performance from last year. I'm more doubtful with Liriano, but if he can command his fastball, he will be fine. Because of these two guys, the Twins rotation hasn't gotten on a great run yet. When they made their run last year, the Twins had all five starters giving them a chance to win every time out. Minnesota has a pretty solid offense, so if the pitchers step up, this team will win the division. And it comes down to Baker and Liriano. Another player to watch is Alexi Casilla. If he can do anything close to what he did last year in the number two hole, this already dangerous Twins offense will become even more dangerous.

I like the Twins chances. I really think it will come down to Chicago and Minnesota. Detroit doesn't have much behind Verlander and Jackson in their rotation, with Rick Porcello continuing to fade. In addition, the depth in their lineup is very weak. Miguel Cabrera has too much to carry in the middle and the bottom of their order is punchless. As for Chicago, I think they don't have enough pitching. Buehrle is terrific, but Floyd and Danks have been much like Baker and Liriano so far this year. As for their 4 and 5 starters, it's pretty much a crap shoot. I love the White Sox lineup, especially since they moved Alexi Ramirez to the number two spot. Ramirez, a Cuba native, is one of my favorite players. However, they also have trouble at the bottom of their lineup.

I like the Twins in this division because of their depth. They have five capable starting pitchers, the best two players in the division, and the best closer in the division. The Twins, like Chicago and Detroit, have trouble producing at the bottom of their lineup, but hopefully Casilla will allow Harris to move down in the order and help that production. It will definitely be an interesting race. The first team to go on a long winning streak could be the champion. As the Twins learned last year, every game is critical. They can't give away as many games as they did in the first half. Baker and Liriano are the key. If they pitch well, the Twins are back in the postseason. Let's get it done.

Go Twins!