Pac-10 Tournament Quarterfinals: USC-Cal

Is tonight the start of something big for the Trojans at Staples Center? Hope springs eternal for a USC team that has under achieved this year. They know that they can erase the disappointment of this year by simply winning three games and capturing the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. This tournament is wide open because there is no dominant team in the conference. So, the question is, can the Trojans win it? I've always believed in this team and I think they can. It starts tonight with Cal.

The Trojans split with the Golden Bears, winning at Galen Center and losing up at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley. The key to the victory here was containing Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher. They combined for only 16 points and shot 2-11 from distance. If the Trojans can hold the prolific combo to anywhere near those numbers, they will win easily. In the game at Haas, Christopher went off for a career high 29 points and Randle had 15 himself. The combo also made 5-10 three pointers. Containing them is the biggest key to the game for USC.

Look for Tim Floyd to start Marcus Simmons in this game. He played outstanding defense in the second half at Berkeley on Jerome Randle, really frustrating him and limiting his production. His defense on Randle today will have to be outstanding again for the Trojans to win. Starting Simmons allows Daniel Hackett to guard Patrick Christopher. That way, you have your best two perimeter defenders guarding their two best players. The Trojans have no need to start a big lineup in this game because Cal's big men (Wilkes and Boykin) like to sit out on the perimeter and are not a threat to dominate inside. USC needs the smaller lineup to keep up with Cal's frantic pace. The Trojans must try to slow this game down and make it a half-court game, because Cal is not good at all in the half-court offense.

USC must feed Taj Gibson early and often in this one. The Bears are an ideal match up for the Trojans big man. He put up 12 and 13 at Galen Center and was even more impressive in Berkeley, putting up 22 and 12. Look for immediate double teams on Taj, which means the Trojans outside shooters, especially Dwight Lewis and Daniel Hackett, have to be ready. Gibson should dominate the Bears for a third time.

It is key for the Trojans other three key starters to play well as well. DeMar DeRozan led the Trojans with 19 in the first meeting, but disappeared in the second half at Berkeley. Dwight Lewis has been in a shooting slump and only shot 3-9 in the last meeting. Daniel Hackett carried the Trojans in Berkeley with 26 points. Hackett is playing at an extremely high level right now. He is getting to the rim, shooting well from outside, getting his teammates involved, and not turning the ball over. Plus, he is playing outstanding defense and always has the most energy of anyone out on the court. Look for Hackett to have another outstanding game again tonight.

Bench play will be key for USC tonight as well. In the first meeting at Galen, Marcus Johnson gave the Trojans 23 solid minutes with 6 points and one monster dunk over Jorge Gutierrez that really got the crowd going. In Berkeley, it was Marcus Simmons who provided 22 big minutes off the bench. If Simmons starts tonight, the Trojans will have Marcus Johnson, Leonard Washington, Keith Wilkinson, and Nikola Vucevic to turn to off the bench. USC is finally healthy, so hopefully in this tournament we will see more of the depth we though we'd see from this team when the season began.

USC was competitive in both games with Cal this year. The difference from the first to the second game? Randall and Christopher went off and the Trojans couldn't hit a free throw to save their lives. The Trojans went 16-28 from the line and the Bears shot 24-27. There's the difference in the game. If the Trojans do the fundamentals right, they should win this game: Solid defense, good free throw shooting, and few turnovers. USC is a more talented team than Cal, but they have to execute.

I expect the Trojans to come out with a ton of energy tonight. They know that this tournament can make or break their season. They also know that they can beat anybody in this conference. Win three games and the disappointment of this season is most likely forgotten. Three more wins and you earn a trip to the greatest tournament in sports. It starts tonight against Cal. Let's play! Fight On!