USC @ #18 ASU

I'm going to keep it simple: Tonight's game against the Sun Devils isn't a must win for the Trojans, but it sure feels like one. With a win, the Trojans will almost seal up a trip to the NCAA Tournament, assuming they can take care of business at home. With a loss, the Trojans will be firmly in sixth place, with little to no room for error the rest of the way. A loss will also make the trip to the Bay Area in a couple weeks even more critical than it already will be.

The match up to watch tonight will be James Harden vs. Daniel Hackett. In the first meeting at Galen Center, Hackett played as good of defense as I've ever seen, holding the Pac-10 leading scorer to 4 points (0-8 FG). The most impressive thing about Hackett's performance was that he denied Harden the ball and prevented the ASU offense from running through him. Obviously, Harden will be more aggressive today, but Tim Floyd will change up his defense as well. Expect to see Hackett on Harden all night, but also expect for Floyd to pull some things out of the hat that he didn't show the Sun Devils last time (Box and 1, aggressive double teams, Triangle and 2, etc). How the Trojans play defensively against Harden will dictate the outcome of this game.

In the first meeting, DeMar DeRozan took over in the second half and put the Trojans on his back en route to the victory. The Sun Devils really don't have anyone to match up one on one against DeRozan and the zone defense they play caters to the open 15 foot jumpers that DeMar has been nailing with ease lately. In the first meeting, he also did a great job of getting behind the zone and getting easy buckets as a result. Look for more of the same today because the Sun Devils don't really vary their defense up much from that pesky zone. Dwight Lewis also killed the Sun Devils with five threes in the first meeting. If Dwight is shooting like he was on Thursday, the Sun Devils are in for some trouble and may need to switch to a man defense. Lewis and DeRozan are the keys offensively for the Trojans today.

As long as USC takes care of the ball and contains Harden, I think they'll win tonight. It's too important of a game and the Trojans will be playing with a sense of urgency from the get go. Also, the Sun Devils could have a bit of a let down after getting a big victory over UCLA on Thursday. This is crunch time and the Trojans need to get it done tonight. Let's play.