USC Has Some Work To Do

For people who think a trip to the NCAA Tournament is a sure bet for the Trojans, think again. In his latest Bracketology on espn.com, Joe Lunardi had the Trojans as the fourth team out of the field. Yes, if it started today, Lunardi has USC out of the NCAA Tournament. Now, I don't mean to create a sense of panic, but just to inform Trojans fans out there that USC has work to be done. A sweep of the Bay Area schools this week at Galen Center is crucial; if the Trojans can get it done, Lunardi will almost certainly have them in the field next Monday when he releases his next Bracketology.

Why is this guy Lunardi so important? Because he has been doing this stuff for years and is normally extremely accurate as to seeding and who is in or out of the tournament. That's not to say he predicts the field perfectly every year, but he is pretty damn close most of the time. Why does he have USC out right now? Mainly, for two reasons.

-The Trojans had a terrible time with their non-conference schedule. The loss to Seton Hall was really bad, and the loss to Mizzou looked bad at the time, but doesn't look so bad now. USC also lost by 1 at Oklahoma, which would have been a huge win. Add to that the early Pac-10 loss at Oregon State (which is looking like a better and better team by the day), and the Trojans have some work to do to overcome these bad losses. If Troy had been able to snag one of the above games, they are probably in the field today.

-The Pac-10 is perceived as a weak conference this year. Right now, Lunardi has 4 Pac-10 teams in the field, compared to 6 last year. The hit the Pac-10 took this year is unquestionable, but I think this year's USC team when healthy is better than last year's. It's up to the Trojans to get healthy and show the selection committee why. The Trojans currently sit 5th in the Pac-10 standings, just 2 games out of first. That's why a good week is essential, especially at home, because the Trojans will easily get to the top 3 of the standings with a sweep of Stanford and Cal.

What do the Trojans have to do the rest of the way to insure an NCAA Tournament bid?

-Finish in the top 4 of the conference. This is the most important thing for the Trojans to do. Since 4 Pac-10 teams will probably get in, finishing in the top 4 during the regular season and possibly picking up a win in the Pac-10 tournament should get the Trojans in.

-Win 20 games. Usually, almost without exception, 20-win teams get a birth in the tournament. Last year, the Trojans had 21 wins. The Trojans must go 7-4 the rest of the way in conference play to make sure of 20 this year. Here are the teams USC should/hopefully will beat to get there:

Home: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State

Road: Arizona, UCLA

These are the games that USC has to win. Stanford and UCLA on the road are pretty big stretches, but a full strength Trojans squad is better than both of those teams. UCLA may in fact be the most overrated team in the country right now: they can't score, they have no serious depth, and they don't have a go to guy down the stretch. They are really struggling right now, and should finish below the Trojans in the Pac-10 standings.

Here are the games USC may have trouble with, but would be huge for them to pull off.

Home: Washington

Road: Cal, Stanford, Arizona State

I really think Stanford on the road will be tougher than UCLA on the road. You can flip-flop them if you like. Regardless, the Trojans must go at least 5-1 at home and 2-3 on the road in order to get to 20 wins. Could they get more? I think so, but only if they stay healthy. Dwight Lewis should be back this week, which will be huge. He and Leonard Washington need to stay healthy and contribute, and the Trojans can't have anyone else go down.

Should be fun. Fight On.