Twins Off-Season Preview

The long awaited Twins off-season preview is finally here! I'm very excited for the Twins off-season because I feel like a marquee name or two will be coming to Minnesota. New GM Bill Smith has shown he's not afraid to make a big deal to get a well known player (Matt Garza-Delmon Young deal). Even if the Twins didn't touch their roster this off-season, they would most likely still be a contender in the AL Central. However, with a few good moves the Twins will go from a division contender to a World Series contender without a doubt. To me, the Twins have four big issues to address this off-season: third base, shortstop, the bullpen, and the outfield situation. First, I'll list the players I see as definitely being on the Twins roster next season. Then, I'll give my take on how they should address their issues this off-season. Here's the players who I see on the Twins next season:

Catchers (2)
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond

Infielders (4)
Justin Morneau
Alexi Casilla
Matt Tolbert
Brendan Harris

Outfielders (5)
Denard Span
Carlos Gomez
Delmon Young
Jason Kubel
Michael Cuddyer

Starting Pitchers (5)
Scott Baker
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey
Nick Blackburn
Glenn Perkins

Relief Pitchers (6)
Joe Nathan
Jose Mijares
Matt Guerrier
Jesse Crain
Craig Breslow
Boof Bonser

This leaves room for two more position players and one more pitcher, or vice versa. I chose to include all five outfielders because I'm not sure who the Twins will choose to part with, if any of them. I'll discuss the outfield situation more down below. Here is how I believe they should deal with their off-season issues:

Shortstop/Third Base:
I'm lumping these positions together because the Twins already have people who can play both. They also really only need an upgrade from outside the organization at one of the two positions. This is clearly the most important issue for the Twins to address this off-season. They desperately need a right handed power bat to compliment Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel from the left side. Michael Cuddyer was supposed to be that last year, but he couldn't stay healthy and when he was didn't put up the home run numbers we expected to see out of him. Cuddyer really has had only one productive year (in 2006 when he had 25 + home runs and 100+ RBI). The point is, the Twins can't count on Cuddyer to be the right handed power bat. If the Twins had to choose between upgrading at either shortstop or third, they would most likely choose third. They haven't had a true everyday third baseman since Korey Koskie left in 2005. Since then, we've seen Tony Batista, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Mike Lamb, and Brendan Harris play the position. They are dying for an everyday power hitting right handed third baseman. However, shortstop has also been a revolving door position for the Twins. If they can get a solid everyday shortstop with some power, I'm sure they would take it. Third base is just more of a priority because it is known as a position where you want someone with power. Twins third basemen combined to hit 7 HR last year, which ranked 29th in the majors. Twins shortstops hit six HR, ranking 22nd in the majors. The bottom line is that the Twins need a significant upgrade at one of the two positions. The Twins could also choose to upgrade at both positions. Here are some names that are known to be on the Twins radar (along with 2008 stats):

3B Garrett Atkins: .286 avg, 21 HR, 99 RBI (currently on Rockies)

3B Casey Blake: .274 avg, 21 HR, 81 RBI (free agent)

SS J.J. Hardy: .283 avg, 24 HR, 74 RBI (currently on Brewers)

SS Yunel Escobar: .288 avg, 10 HR, 60 RBI (currently on Braves)

3B Adrian Beltre: .266 avg, 25 HR, 77 RBI (currently on Mariners)

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff: .260 avg, 23 HR, 84 RBI (currently on Padres)

SS Orlando Cabrera: .281 avg, 8 HR, 57 RBI (free agent)

SS Rafael Furcal: .357, 5 HR, 16 RBI (in 36 games) (free agent)

SS Edgar Renteria: .270 avg, 10 HR, 55 RBI (free agent)

3B Joe Crede: .248 avg, 17 HR, 55 RBI (free agent)

Of these names, I really like J.J. Hardy. He is only 26 years old and has some serious pop in his bat. His defense isn't spectacular, but it's not bad. He only made $2.65 million last year and won't be a free agent until after the 2010 season. His average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage have improved in each of his three seasons in the big leagues and he has hit 50 HR over the past two seasons. The Brewers have a serious need for starting pitching because C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets are both likely to leave via free agency. It would probably take Nick Blackburn or Glen Perkins plus a couple prospects to land Hardy. I would do that trade in a heartbeat. While I like Blackburn and Perkins, neither is as good as Slowey, Baker, or Liriano, and neither has much upside. Most likely, what you saw from them last year is what you're going to get in the future, which isn't bad but can easily be replaced. If the Brewers asked for Slowey, I probably wouldn't do the trade because I think he has significant upside. Obviously, Liriano and Baker are off the table. Hardy would fit the need perfectly for a right handed power bat to complement Mauer and Morneau. He could also play third base if the Twins were to aquire another shortstop. Hardy is a young star in this league who I think should be the Twins top priority to acquire this off-season.

Kevin Kouzmanoff would also make a very solid addition. He's only 27 years old and can definitely provide the pop the Twins need. What's also very intriguing about him is how well he has hit away from Petco Park, which is known to be a pitchers park. Kouzmanoff hit .296 on the road last season, compared to .226 at home. His on base and slugging percentages were also significantly better on the road. Think of what Kouzmanoff could do playing at the hitters friendly Metrodome 81 times a year. Kouzmanoff's defense is known to be pretty solid as well. The Padres definitely need hitting, so this would be a place the Twins could trade an outfielder. Also, if the Padres trade ace pitcher Jake Peavy, they will also be in need of some young pitching, something the Twins could definitely provide. Kouzmanoff's name hasn't been directly linked to the Twins in trade talks yet, but don't be surprised if he's wearing a Twins uniform on Opening Day 2009.

Of the other names I mentioned, I like Adrian Beltre, Yunel Escobar, and Rafael Furcal. Beltre is someone who the Twins tried to acquire at the trade deadline this season, but they found the Mariners asking price too high. He is definitely someone who can hit the ball out of the park with regularity. He also is a gold glove third baseman. The down side to Beltre is that he is a free agent after the season and the Twins will find it hard to come up with the money necessary to sign him long term. Hardy and Kouzmanoff are both younger and reaching their primes, whereas Beltre is getting up there in age and probably on the down side. Also, other than one terrific year with the Dodgers when he hit 48 HR and had well over 100 RBI, Beltre hasn't had any phenomenal statistical seasons. He is certainly a good back up option to Hardy or Kouzmanoff, however. Yunel Escobar is also 26 years old and is an up and coming shortstop who plays outstanding defense. He probably isn't exactly what the Twins are looking for in terms of power, so his acquisition is less likely. It would probably have to be in addition to the acquisition of a power hitter. Escobar does, however, have the potential to hit a lot of home runs. I see the Braves demanding a lot for him though because he is really a young phenom. It will be tough for the Twins to pry him away from Atlanta. I really like Rafael Furcal as well. Obviously, the Twins would have to acquire someone else to fill the power void, but Furcal is a terrific defensive shortstop with a cannon arm who hits for a high average and steals a lot of bases. His speed and glove would fit the Twins style perfectly. A lineup with Furcal, Span, Gomez, and Casilla would create fits for opposing pitchers and catchers trying to keep them off the base paths. Furcal is probably outside the Twins price range and is also up there in age, so I don't think it's likely he'll be coming to Minnesota.

Garrett Atkins is a name that has come up a lot lately surrounding the Twins. The Rockies just dealt star outfielder Matt Holliday, so this is where one of the Twins outfielders (most likely Cuddyer or Young) could be used as trade bait. While Atkins is a talented player, I do not want to see him in Minnesota for several reasons. First, his numbers have gone down in each of the last three seasons. In 2006, Atkins hit .329 with 29 HR and 120 RBI. In 2007, he hit .301 with 25 HR and 111 RBI. And in 2008, he hit .286 with 21 HR and 99 RBI. His OBP has also dropped from .409 in 2006 to .328 in 2008, his slugging percentage went from .556 in '06 to .452 in '08, his walks went from 79 to 40, and his strikeouts went from 76 to 100. All of his statistics suggest a downward trend in Atkins' production, which is not what the Twins want. Second, Atkins has been a much different player away from the friendly dimensions of Coors Field. Since 2007 he has only batted .244 on the road. In 2008, he hit .342 at home and .233 on the road, over an 100 point differential. Coors Field is known to be the best hitters park in baseball. Away from Coors, Atkins has been no more than a mediocre third baseman. Atkins will also be 29 years old next season and will most likely make between 6-7 million dollars in arbitration. He will be a free agent after the 2010 season. For all of these reasons, I do not want to see Garrett Atkins in a Twins uniform. I don't mean to dump on him because he is a talented player who would help the Twins to some degree. However, I don't think he's who the Twins should look to acquire.

Casey Blake and Joe Crede are two interesting options. While they wouldn't be my first choices, I would consider both if the Twins acquired someone like J.J. Hardy. If the Twins got Hardy, they could afford to take a gamble on either Crede or Blake. Blake is a former Twin with a good glove and a pretty powerful bat. He has consistently hit over 20 HR every year. The downside is that he is probably looking for a three year deal and he is already 35. Crede is a less likely option because of injury concerns. I don't think he would want to come to Minnesota and play on artificial turf, considering the back problems he's had recently. However, Crede has killed the Twins and when healthy, can hit a lot of home runs.

Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria aren't players who I think the Twins should consider. Both will probably get more money than they deserve because of good past reputations, but they are on the downside of their careers. I would be satisfied with Renteria as an emergency option at shortstop, but I don't want Cabrera at all. He is known to be a terrible club house guy, something that should steer the Twins away immediately. Also, his production has been mediocre at best the past few seasons. Resigning Nick Punto would be a better option than Cabrera. Speaking of Punto, I think the Twins decision on him should depend on what Punto wants his role to be. If he want to be a starter, he should look elsewhere. However, if he is ok with being a utility guy, then the Twins should resign him because he is terrific defensively and in the clubhouse, and he plays the game very hard.

In summary, I would like the Twins to make a serious run at J.J. Hardy. If they can get him, then I would take a gamble on Casey Blake or Joe Crede at third base. A secondary option would be to acquire Kevin Kouzmanoff from San Diego or Adrian Beltre from Seattle. I see the Twins filling this need through a trade, rather than free agency because of the limited and mediocre options available in the free agent market. In the end, I think they'll end up with Atkins, Hardy, or Kouzmanoff, but it's really anyone's guess.

Bullpen:
With the bad news about Pat Neshek coming out yesterday, the need for the Twins to add bullpen help this off-season just increased dramatically. Before Neshek was ruled out for the season, I didn't think the Twins absolutely had to add bullpen depth from outside their own minor league system. Now, I think it's imperative that they do. We saw last year what one injury can do to a bullpen. Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain were very over worked, and Guerrier especially wore down at the end of the year. If Guerrier and Crain can return to their normal 6th/7th inning roles, I think both will be much more effective this year. Crain was also coming off of shoulder surgery last year, so he should be stronger this year. I think we will see young lefty Jose Mijares take over the 8th inning setup role. He was outstanding in his short time with the Twins down the stretch last season, compiling a 0.87 ERA in 10 appearances. He has the electric stuff for the 8th inning role. I think Boof Bonser can have success in a long relief role, something he was pretty good at last year after failing again as a starter. He has very good stuff. The key for Bonser is location. If he can locate, he could be a good long relief option to eat up some innings when a starter has a bad day. Of course, it goes without saying that Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the game. He is phenomenal and is without question the anchor of this bullpen. I don't think the Twins will resign Dennys Reyes because they already have lefties Breslow and Mijares, and the price will probably be too high. Reyes also had trouble with inherited runners last year. Since the Twins already have Breslow and Mijares from the left side, they need to acquire a hard throwing right hander who can provide insurance for Crain and Guerrier, and come in to get a tough right handed hitter out in a clutch situation. It's really a crap shoot to guess who they might acquire, but here are some possible free agent candidates:

Juan Cruz: 4-0, 2.61 ERA, 71 K

Darren Oliver: 7-1, 2.88 ERA, 48 K

Russ Springer: 2-1, 2.32 ERA, 45 K

Brian Shouse: 5-1, 2.81 ERA, 33 K

Joe Beimel: 5-1, 2.02 ERA, 32 K

Of these guys, I really like Juan Cruz, who pitched for Arizona last year. He throws very hard and has electric stuff. He'd be a perfect guy to come in and get a big strikeout in the 7th or 8th inning. Darren Oliver is also intriguing. He had a very good year for the Angels this season, and because he is 38 he would probably only require a one year deal, something that would likely be attractive to the Twins. Springer and Shouse aren't as solid as Oliver, but are also up there in age (40). Beimel at age 32 and Cruz at age 30 would require multi-year deals, but I think Cruz especially would be worthy of the investment. We saw how important a good bullpen was for the World Champion Phillies this season. Any of these guys would be a good option. You could also see the Twins address this issue as part of a trade for a shortstop or third baseman. Huston Street, who was just traded to the Rockies, is a name that has come up as a possibility. I don't see Street in a Twins uniform however, because he is a closer and would probably require the Twins to have to give up a lot more than they would have to for a middle reliever or setup man. If I had to guess, I'd say this issue will be addressed as part of a trade, so it's hard to say who the Twins might end up with. Don't be surprised, however, if the Twins address their bullpen issue in free agency because they do have some extra money to spend this winter. They could also rely on young guys, such as Phillip Humber, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, and Anthony Slama.

Outfield Situation:
Right now, the Twins have a surplus of talented outfielders: Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer. I believe the Twins will part with one of them before the season because it will just be too hard to find quality playing time for all of them. It doesn't hurt though, as we saw last year, to keep all of them around in case of injury. I think the Twins consider Span, Gomez, and Kubel virtually untouchable, and rightfully so. Span and Gomez are both phenomenal defensively, both cause problems on the base paths, and both have the potential to be very solid hitters. We already saw what Span could do at the plate and we started to see by the end of the season what Gomez was capable of. Kubel is also a key piece to hang on to. He was second on the team in home runs to Justin Morneau and is a great run producer from the left side of the plate. The Twins definitely view him as their future DH. That leaves Young and Cuddyer. If I had to choose one to trade, it would be Michael Cuddyer. He has the biggest contract, is very injury prone, has little upside, and has really only had one productive season. I know it seems like I'm dumping on him, but that's how I feel. While he is a tremendous clubhouse presence, has a great arm in the outfield, and can provide some power when healthy, I believe he is the one outfielder the Twins can most afford to lose. Many want to trade Delmon Young based on one less than impressive season with the Twins. Fans have to remember that he is still only 22 years old and has tremendous upside. He could eventually be a guy who hits 30+ HR and drives in 130 runs. There's a reason he was the number one overall pick when he was drafted. With all this being said, Cuddyer probably doesn't have nearly the value that Young has on the trade market. If the Twins can't get what they want for Cuddyer, then they should put Young on the block. I really don't want to trade Delmon, but he does have some attitude issues, is lackluster in the field, and still is very impatient at the plate. Since Span, Gomez, and Kubel are virtually untouchable, Delmon is the next logical candidate to be traded after Cuddyer. I believe though that the Twins can get a lot for a package centered around Cuddyer, despite his big contract and injury history. His injuries have mostly been fluke injuries and he is still a relatively young player with power potential. It will be very interesting to see how the Twins address this outfield situation during the off-season.

Overall Outlook:
I am very excited to see what the Twins do this off-season because I think they are very close to being a serious World Series contender. After losing to the White Sox in the one game playoff this past season, look for the Twins to come out with payback on their minds in 2009. This is definitely a team that believes it can go far. If the Twins can add two or three more quality pieces to their squad, they should be in very good shape for 2009. Their young starting pitching rotation will be one of the best in baseball next season. Scott Baker has all the qualities of a top of the line pitcher, and Francisco Liriano will hopefully be back to full strength. The Twins lineup scored a lot of runs last season (top 5 in the AL), and with the addition of a power hitting third baseman or shortstop to the mix, they should be in great shape again next season. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau provide a terrific nucleus, and they are surrounded by a lot of talent with Span, Casilla, Young, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Gomez. The Twins bullpen should have a bounce back 2009. With a combination of young guys from the minors and possibly an acquisition, the bullpen will be strong. Look for Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain to have bounce back seasons. Of course, the anchor Joe Nathan is a dominating force to close out games. This young team under Ron Gardenhire exceeded everyone's expectations in 2008. They won't have to sneak up on anybody in 2009. The Twins payroll was about $10 million less in 2008 than it was in 2007 and they have the new stadium on the horizon, so they have some money to spend this off-season. I can't wait to see what they do.

WE'RE COMIN!!!!!